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Prediction markets for Member States

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

405517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3386

1646

Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Dec 18, 1:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.09%chance

604403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

797

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.38%chance

333131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2064

745

Will a U.S. state recognize marriages with more than two members?

May 23, 12:25 AMJan 19, 4:14 AM

40.77%chance

542354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

949

Will a member of United States senate die in 2026?

Jan 1, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.47%chance

111793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

662

Will the UK be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Dec 20, 6:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.67%chance

221577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

824

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state before Ukraine joins NATO?

Apr 19, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.72%chance

24883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

960

Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2031?

Sep 29, 8:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.21%chance

19794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

846

Will the UN add a new member state before 2030?

Jul 23, 5:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

77.19%chance

21538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

949

Will A.I. technology lead to regime change and /or state collapse in a UN member state by 2043?

Aug 28, 10:52 PMDec 5, 8:59 PM

67.54%chance

19445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

950

Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2029?

Sep 29, 8:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.56%chance

15416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

865

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Jun 30, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

16284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

965

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