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Prediction markets for Member States

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.45%chance

4110219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4892

1470

Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Dec 18, 1:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43%chance

624452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

830

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.53%chance

343134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

Will a U.S. state recognize marriages with more than two members?

May 23, 12:25 AMJan 19, 4:14 AM

40.77%chance

542354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

949

Will a member of United States senate die in 2026?

Jan 1, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.85%chance

131895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

764

Will the UK be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Dec 20, 6:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.67%chance

221577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

824

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state before Ukraine joins NATO?

Apr 19, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.72%chance

24883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

960

Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2031?

Sep 29, 8:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.99%chance

20844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

896

Will the UN add a new member state before 2030?

Jul 23, 5:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.97%chance

22568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

979

Will A.I. technology lead to regime change and /or state collapse in a UN member state by 2043?

Aug 28, 10:52 PMDec 5, 8:59 PM

67.54%chance

19445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

950

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Jun 30, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

16284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

965

Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?

Jun 26, 1:08 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

49.5%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

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