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Top stories

NOAA Sees Auroras for 16 States as Rare Six-Planet Alignment Looms

NOAA Sees Auroras for 16 States as Rare Six-Planet Alignment Looms

Authors

13

1 year ago

Moonlight Dims Aug. 12 – 13 Perseid Meteor Shower Peak

Moonlight Dims Aug. 12 – 13 Perseid Meteor Shower Peak

Authors

72

1 year ago

Inouye Solar Telescope Captures Smallest Coronal Loops, First X-Class Flare; NASA Releases Sharpest Sun Images

Inouye Solar Telescope Captures Smallest Coronal Loops, First X-Class Flare; NASA Releases Sharpest Sun Images

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Mercury

Will a human walk on Mercury before 2040?

Dec 30, 8:59 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.21%chance

2610051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7210

767

Will there exist a swimming pool filled with mercury before 2030?

Dec 29, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.12%chance

152227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2695

372

Will more than a gram of non-radioactive gold be produced from mercury by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

61549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will a human walk on Mercury before 2045?

Jan 1, 8:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.39%chance

161535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

931

Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2040?

Dec 30, 1:29 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10.29%chance

161227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

314

130

Will Mercury be dismantled before 2070?

May 13, 1:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

16781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2050?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

45.52%chance

11630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

58

When will the first successful soft landing of a spacecraft on Mercury happen?

Sep 7, 4:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2210

OptionProbability

2031-2040

2041-2050

After 2050

2026-2030

26

26

26

22

Will China restrict exports of mercury on December 31, 2026?

Sep 28, 8:09 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

74.93%chance

5158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

162

13

Will a spacecraft that plans to attempt a soft landing on Mercury launch by the end of 2030?

Aug 25, 2:31 AMDec 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

7113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

76

Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?

May 30, 8:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.97%chance

795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

97

Successful Mercury landing till 2040?

Apr 22, 7:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.15%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

100

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