Monte Carlo News

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.06%chance

215232

OptionVotes

YES

1880

532

Which Men's Tennis player will win at least one Masters 1000 title in 2026?

Jan 26, 2:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

252072

OptionProbability

Jannik Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz

Other

Novak Djokovic

Alexander Zverev

Taylor Fritz

Alex de Minaur

Ben Shelton

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Lorenzo Musetti

Learner Tien

Jack Draper

Casper Ruud

Alexander Bublik

100

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

YES

2000

824

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028?

Oct 24, 2:30 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

66%chance

161084

OptionVotes

YES

150

121

The new, rounder, signup buttons for Beeminder will improve signup conversion

Dec 28, 4:09 PMJun 30, 3:07 PM

65.05%chance

5184

OptionVotes

YES

136

Monte Carlo News

Prediction markets for Monte Carlo

Prediction markets for Monte Carlo

Prediction markets for Monte Carlo

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Which Men's Tennis player will win at least one Masters 1000 title in 2026?

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028?

The new, rounder, signup buttons for Beeminder will improve signup conversion

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