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Prediction markets for New Glenn

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

Nov 24, 12:08 AMDec 28, 12:59 PM

86%chance

8222307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2402

456

Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?

Jun 4, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

162753

OptionProbability

[none of these happen in 2026]

New Glenn Return to Flight

Starship Refueling Demo

Neutron launch

73

13

12

2

How many times will New Glenn launch successfully in 2026?

Oct 8, 12:34 AMJan 1, 2:36 AM

232470

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 2

Above 8

Above 10

Above 4

Above 6

13

1

1

1

0

0

By when will New Glenn next launch?

May 29, 2:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91855

OptionProbability

2028-12-31

2027-12-31

2027-06-30

2027-03-31

2026-12-31

92

84

70

48

17

Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?

Jun 17, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.41%chance

91319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

614

Will SpaceX catch Ship before New Glenn RTF?

Jun 21, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.54%chance

161015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1806

554

Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21)

Apr 21, 4:07 PMOct 21, 4:06 PM

3.08%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

561

18

By when will New Glenn 5 launch?

Jun 21, 2:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9807

OptionProbability

Before 2027-12-31

Before 2027-06-30

Before 2027-03-31

80

56

32

Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?

May 29, 6:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.42%chance

6487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

411

24

Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?

Jun 2, 4:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.69%chance

9330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

740

541

Will the next New Glenn mission be a success?

Apr 20, 3:05 PMDec 31, 4:05 PM

83.92%chance

11241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

228

44

How many times will New Glenn launch in 2027?

Jun 22, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

580

OptionProbability

Other

3

2

1

0

37

23

16

13

10

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