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U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory

6 months ago

U.S. Confirms First Travel-Associated Human Case of Flesh-Eating New World Screwworm in Maryland Patient Who Traveled from Guatemala and El Salvador

5 months ago

Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions

Dec 21, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

311924

OptionProbability

Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.

We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).

No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”.

Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic will escalate.

Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate.

2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble, and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.

Will neither New Zealand nor South Africa be in the 2027 Rugby World Cup Final?

Oct 31, 5:09 AMNov 4, 3:59 PM

18.35%chance

81805

OptionVotes

YES

256

Will a new pandemic caused by a currently unknown virus be declared by the World Health Organization by 2030?

Jan 23, 3:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.77%chance

301035

OptionVotes

YES

1350

773

When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?

Oct 12, 3:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9844

OptionProbability

2050 or later

2032-2034

2035-2037

2038-2040

2026-2028

2029-2031

2041-2043

2044-2046

2047-2049

2023-2025

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.56%chance

15809

OptionVotes

YES

1266

790

Will New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?

Jan 10, 10:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.98%chance

23636

OptionVotes

YES

1366

928

Will New Zealand fail to qualify for a Rugby World Cup in the 21st century?

Feb 9, 7:58 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

13.15%chance

5192

OptionVotes

YES

215

Will there be a new world record score in tournament Scrabble by 2030?

May 15, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.42%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

141

Will any club in USL's new first division league reach the top 20 of the world's most valuable soccer clubs before 2050?

Mar 24, 6:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

160

Will New Zealand men's national football team win a match at FIFA World Cup 2026?

Mar 24, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.64%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

103

Will someone write a new Sophie's world book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, @adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028

Jun 11, 5:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

is brave new world a utopia or distopia?

Mar 17, 10:48 AM

110

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Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions

Will neither New Zealand nor South Africa be in the 2027 Rugby World Cup Final?

Will a new pandemic caused by a currently unknown virus be declared by the World Health Organization by 2030?

When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Will New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?

Will New Zealand fail to qualify for a Rugby World Cup in the 21st century?

Will there be a new world record score in tournament Scrabble by 2030?

Will any club in USL's new first division league reach the top 20 of the world's most valuable soccer clubs before 2050?

Will New Zealand men's national football team win a match at FIFA World Cup 2026?

Will someone write a new Sophie's world book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, @adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028

is brave new world a utopia or distopia?

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