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Prediction markets for New York City Democratic

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

152709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

722

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.68%chance

492390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5270

1565

Who will win the 2029 New York City Democratic mayoral primary?

Jun 25, 1:40 AMJun 24, 10:59 PM

301846

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Am I the creator?

Other

Brad Lander

Andrew Yang

Andrew Cuomo

No one

Santa Claus

78

50

34

10

9

3

1

1

Which NYC-DSA non-incumbent candidates will win their primaries in June 2026?

Apr 15, 12:34 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7470

OptionProbability

Diana Moreno - Assembly District 36

Samantha Kattan - Assembly District 37

Eon Huntley - Assembly District 56

Illapa Sairitupac - Assembly District 65

David Orkin - Assembly District 38

Claire Valdez - Congressional District 7

Aber Kawas - Senate District 12

Christian Celeste Tate - Assembly District 54

Conrad Blackburn - Assembly District 70

Darializa Avila Chevalier - Congressional District 13

96

96

88

88

77

72

57

50

50

44

Who will win the 2029 Democratic primary for New York City mayor?

Jan 1, 3:24 AMJun 24, 11:59 AM

4316

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Other

84

16

NYC government-run grocery stores exist on January 1, 2030?

Jun 25, 3:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.4%chance

7238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

By the end of Mamdani's term of office New York City violent crime rate will be higher than when he took office.

Dec 20, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

8144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

Who would you rank #2 for NYC Mayor Democratic Primary Ballot?

Jun 14, 12:43 AM

160

Who would you rank #1 for NYC Mayor Democratic Primary Ballot?

Jun 13, 3:38 PM

290

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