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Top stories

Sompo Buys Aspen Insurance for $3.5 Billion to Bolster US Reach

Sompo Buys Aspen Insurance for $3.5 Billion to Bolster US Reach

Authors

10

3 months ago

Company Earnings

Riskified Lifts 2025 Outlook and Adds $75 Million Share Buyback

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for New

N.C. Young's 💎 Crystallised 💎 New Year's Resolutions

Jan 2, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

48426483

OptionProbability

Stage a musical 🐉

Do something awesome that I wouldn’t have predicted in 2024 ❓

Submit PhD thesis 👨🏻‍⚕️

Host 5 parties 🎉

Write 10 book reviews 📚

Pass the Army Combat Fitness Test 🏃🏻‍♂️‍➡️

Contribute 3 major features to open-source projects 👨🏻‍💻

Visit Edinburgh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Go on 20 dates 💌

Reach 200 Substack subscribers 📝

Reach 10000 views on Twitch & YouTube 🎥

Make N.C.Y.BOT the most profitable non-house bot on Manifold 🤖

87

73

38

35

23

21

18

15

8

5

2

1

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

30.32%chance

149156658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1447

717

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.43%chance

447130681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3258

2837

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.92%chance

318110019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

832

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756948

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

80

15

4

0

0

0

0

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

2650797

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

70

29

1

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.36%chance

2339329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43888

3793

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10081

9577

China's 70-city new home price index YoY change for December 2025 >= -2.0%?

Nov 26, 6:05 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

40.83%chance

32393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12039

8306

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

56.37%chance

41397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11367

8797

US issues 85k new H-1B visas in FY2027? (Conditional on 100k fee implementation)

Sep 22, 4:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

48.53%chance

2170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5190

5003

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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