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Prediction markets for No

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109153

17619

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62%chance

26990888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2692

1782

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

37.67%chance

24077963

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2405

1440

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2292

1619

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.47%chance

15471093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

976

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

Apr 9, 5:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.53%chance

11023460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

939

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?

Jul 31, 6:14 PMAug 30, 5:48 PM

47.56%chance

11211862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

789

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on no AGI by 2050?

Feb 5, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

282549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2669

1544

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 72 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

53.48%chance

886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

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