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Prediction markets for Normal

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.03%chance

8975110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75807

45864

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Dec 4, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2235068

OptionProbability

1.0-1.2

1.2-1.4

0.8-1.0

1.4-1.6

>=1.6

<0.8

35

22

19

11

8

5

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

84.04%chance

12427775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11914

9314

By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?

Mar 28, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.75%chance

566416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

783

Will the 2028 US Presidential election happen normally?

Nov 5, 11:09 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

67.61%chance

105910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14293

7078

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

37.76%chance

184515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

779

By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?

Mar 28, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25%chance

353881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

967

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.14%chance

503753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

673

By the end of 2045, will it be possible for someone born biologically male to get pregnant and have children normally?

Mar 27, 1:03 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.77%chance

282347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

920

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.42%chance

351342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

928

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.05%chance

18763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

848

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029?

Jun 13, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.79%chance

14430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

969

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