North Atlantic News

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7039400

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Ethereum (ETH)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Gold (Au)

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

TRUMP

Manifold Mana

Paperclips

Will the North Atlantic Current collapse before 2030?

Jul 29, 11:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.51%chance

266269

OptionVotes

YES

1865

833

Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?

Dec 15, 1:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4.36%chance

234984

OptionVotes

YES

4685

213

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213754

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

Is the Gulf Stream going to collapse before 2030

Aug 5, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.91%chance

151990

OptionVotes

YES

1423

938

NATO joins USA-Iran conflict before 2026?

Jun 22, 10:25 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

14.49%chance

191990

OptionVotes

YES

2430

412

Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 3:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.61%chance

251075

OptionVotes

YES

1058

894

A NATO member officially announces intention to leave NATO before 2026

Mar 17, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

10%chance

19829

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will the North Atlantic right whale be considered functionally extinct before 2040?

Jun 12, 4:48 PMDec 12, 11:59 PM

75.49%chance

20452

OptionVotes

YES

1041

800

Will the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 22, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.77%chance

5364

OptionVotes

YES

802

402

NATO stocks (Permanent)

Nov 27, 11:09 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10311

OptionProbability

YES

336

150

Will Slovenia hold a referendum on NATO membership or military expenditure by the end of April 2026?

Jul 10, 2:35 PMApr 30, 10:00 PM

26.42%chance

387

OptionVotes

YES

167

North Atlantic News

Prediction markets for North Atlantic

Prediction markets for North Atlantic

Prediction markets for North Atlantic

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Will the North Atlantic Current collapse before 2030?

Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Is the Gulf Stream going to collapse before 2030

NATO joins USA-Iran conflict before 2026?

Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?

A NATO member officially announces intention to leave NATO before 2026

Will the North Atlantic right whale be considered functionally extinct before 2040?

Will the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become extinct in the current century?

NATO stocks (Permanent)

Will Slovenia hold a referendum on NATO membership or military expenditure by the end of April 2026?

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