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Prediction markets for Northern State

Will the Cape declare independence before 2030?

Sep 23, 1:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.51%chance

2931047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2125

819

Will Ireland be invaded by the UK before 2030 in the event of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach in next elections

May 11, 10:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

2.89%chance

334645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2902

834

Will Elon Musk express support for Cape Independence by 2025?

Sep 23, 1:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.22%chance

113547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2752

740

In which states will a hurricane make landfall in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?

May 28, 7:52 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

93316

OptionProbability

Florida

Louisiana

Texas

South Carolina

Mississippi

Alabama

Georgia

North Carolina

Virginia

Maryland

Massachusetts

Delaware

New Jersey

Rhode Island

New York

New Hampshire

Connecticut

Maine

81

66

62

34

33

33

29

24

16

11

9

8

8

8

7

6

5

5

Will the UK acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?

Feb 18, 12:56 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.4%chance

181345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

724

Will the United Kingdom attempt to rejoin the EU and Greece demand the Elgin Marbles back to let them? [2033]

Jul 7, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.51%chance

241180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1429

790

Will Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolish its monarchy before 2030?

Apr 8, 10:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.4%chance

31780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

958

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

957

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Nov 26, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.97%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

187

Will criminal contempt proceedings be initiated against these Apple executives before 2027?

May 2, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7121

OptionProbability

Alex Roman

Tim Cook

Luca Maestri

45

24

21

Will Northern Cyprus be a sovereign state before 2040?

May 28, 8:04 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

23.35%chance

559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

60

Will the Northern Territory of Australia become a state by 2040?

Mar 12, 6:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

15.75%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

78

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