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Top stories

UK Government Rejects Bank Holiday After Lionesses’ Euro 2025 Win

UK Government Rejects Bank Holiday After Lionesses’ Euro 2025 Win

Authors

14

6 days ago

Prediction markets for Number

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

69%chance

159139989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1698

1437

What number streak will I get to on Manifold?

Jan 21, 12:55 PMJan 28, 11:59 PM

732991

OptionProbability

500

600

700

731 (two years)

800

900

450

1000

1096 (three years)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

99

Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?

Jul 11, 7:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.38%chance

575644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

784

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

222962

Will a significant number of Palestinians from Gaza be permanently resettled in Egypt and/or Jordan under Trump's term?

Jan 30, 10:03 PMJan 20, 6:59 PM

13.87%chance

272894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

100

Will the [5, 5] Ramsey number by known before 2040?

Apr 8, 5:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

70.66%chance

162189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1348

811

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

46.03%chance

351443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

815

Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2028?

Apr 24, 7:50 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

49.48%chance

18846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

634

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Jul 16, 1:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.85%chance

10660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

904

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.72%chance

10400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

834

Will Dick Cheney live to see a new largest Prime number? (Last one - Oct 21 2024)

Oct 21, 3:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73%chance

12220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1275

1017

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

46.78%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2026

1742

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