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Prediction markets for OC

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2058388

OptionProbability

Other

Matt Giacona

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Trump not elected President

44

36

19

1

Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?

Nov 11, 5:20 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

3.56%chance

1150592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52049

1924

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14134332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.63%chance

4231220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.59%chance

14725584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8788

5752

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2523779

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

80

39

24

13

5

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.5%chance

5515938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3326

309

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

36.35%chance

177427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1952

602

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

65%chance

583974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

613

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

16.66%chance

292574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

1967

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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