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How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4871492

OptionProbability

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

55

19

13

8

4

2

1

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2159110

OptionProbability

Other

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

57

24

18

1

Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?

Nov 11, 5:20 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

3.56%chance

1150592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52049

1924

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4431602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.84%chance

14826834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7430

6053

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

21.86%chance

209674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2507

379

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

56%chance

625724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

755

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

16.66%chance

292574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

1967

Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?

Jun 28, 5:43 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

38.91%chance

11849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

1310

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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