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Prediction markets for OC

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66156533

OptionProbability

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

99

92

36

7

2

2

2

0

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2364892

OptionProbability

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Other

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

65

29

5

1

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.4%chance

14926930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7592

6014

OpenAI valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

2017709

OptionProbability

Above $1T

Above $1.5T

Above $2.5T

Above $4T

87

78

12

2

Anthropic valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

3216759

OptionProbability

Above $1T

Above $1.5T

Above $2.5T

Above $4T

97

92

35

4

Kimi Moonshot AI valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

3211008

OptionProbability

Above $50B

Above $100B

Above $200B

Above $400B

92

46

11

5

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

55.58%chance

656578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

762

Will Daniel Lord still be living in a Tesla by the end of October?

Aug 22, 11:03 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

62.21%chance

241358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5320

4950

Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?

Sep 23, 5:09 PMOct 15, 11:59 PM

51.82%chance

201042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10227

9744

Will there be a second Jev-style decision output model on OpenRouter by end October?

Sep 18, 8:58 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

34.47%chance

8207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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