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Prediction markets for OC

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

1.16%chance

16583111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38546

1271

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

Jan 22, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.93%chance

3760013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53434

4038

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1957441

OptionProbability

Matt Giacona

Other

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Trump not elected President

52

32

16

1

Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?

Nov 11, 5:20 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

3.43%chance

443132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53088

1884

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

68%chance

12929843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11121

5741

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18%chance

3529096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

14725557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8657

5779

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1818684

OptionProbability

5 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

84

67

40

16

6

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

426688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2413

1603

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

16.66%chance

292574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

1967

Will a major war in Asia occur during Donald Trumps Presidency?

Nov 6, 6:24 PMApr 21, 4:59 AM

58.28%chance

101301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

846

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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