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Top stories

Israeli Forces Injure 37 in Nablus, Abduct Child, Detain Journalist Amid West Bank Raids and Sebastia Militarization

Israeli Forces Injure 37 in Nablus, Abduct Child, Detain Journalist Amid West Bank Raids and Sebastia Militarization

Authors

7

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Old City

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

65445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

918

Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

23.93%chance

143846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1783

561

Will there be anywhere childfree city before 2030?

Aug 8, 2:49 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

10%chance

493247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

928

Conditional on moving to [city], what is P(my friend has a primary partner in March 2026)?

Mar 22, 10:58 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

121684

OptionProbability

Seattle

Chicago

New York City

Boston

Washington DC

Portland

San Francisco

62

58

57

57

55

50

43

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM

5.12%chance

12959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

69.01%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

When will Ukraine capture Kupiansk?

Dec 17, 3:47 PMDec 30, 3:34 PM

4524

OptionProbability

By the end of 2027

By the end of 2026

By the end of 2025

95

91

0

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

42.14%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Will I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?

Oct 27, 4:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.97%chance

9321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

104

Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.23%chance

7215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

822

777

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

Will AI convert my old SimCity 2000 cities into Cities Skylines 2 cities by 2030?

Mar 19, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.89%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

81

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