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Top stories

Trump-Putin Summit Papers Left on Alaska Hotel Printer Spur Security Questions

US Foreign Policy

Trump-Putin Summit Papers Left on Alaska Hotel Printer Spur Security Questions

Authors

21

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Olympia

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.14%chance

154150007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49118

4323

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

68113453

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

70

19

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Jul 23, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.71%chance

237100126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2562

566

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.85%chance

6617807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10162

9359

Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?

May 18, 2:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.64%chance

2511259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3252

308

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

485058

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2030 or later

2028

2029

2024

26

21

19

17

9

7

1

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

54.94%chance

184642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

906

West coast best coast (in math olympiads)?

Nov 21, 8:22 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

16.18%chance

353909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2088

587

What olympiads will I attend this year?

Mar 9, 12:22 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

123388

OptionProbability

IMO

IMC

BOI

SWERC

IOI

ICO

IOAI

IIOT

100

100

100

99

0

0

0

0

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.05%chance

262827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

914

Will "That Mad Olympiad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 17, 4:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.7%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

984

Will I qualify for at least one international olympiad?

Nov 21, 1:03 PMMay 28, 12:53 PM

45.9%chance

4210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

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