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Prediction markets for Oran

Which public figures will outlive @Orangey?

Mar 6, 11:24 PMApr 21, 6:59 AM

142294

OptionProbability

Donald Trump

Vladimir Putin

Joe Biden

Buzz Aldrin

David Attenborough

Jimmy Carter

76

70

64

29

20

0

Orangie

Nov 13, 2:07 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

151128

OptionProbability

NO

YES

316

259

Will we have a way of increasing Orangutan intelligence and language capability to at least human level by 2030

Jul 18, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.74%chance

9463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

151

Will the Bornean Orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.51%chance

12310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

620

337

Will the Tapanuli Orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 5:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.68%chance

11262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

668

436

"Orange man crazy" a better prior than "nothing ever happens" at EOY 2025?

Apr 4, 1:38 AMJan 10, 11:59 PM

67.44%chance

12140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Will the Sumatran Orangutan (Pongo abelii) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 5:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.48%chance

13131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

512

480

Will the wild population of the Bornean Orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) become extinct by 2100?

Mar 3, 10:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.56%chance

3100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

570

458

Will the NZ Electoral Commission still use the Orange Guy in 2029?

May 10, 6:09 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

81.17%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

39

Will the NZ Electoral Commission still use the Orange Guy in 2038?

May 10, 7:09 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

52.84%chance

550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

98

Will Orange Juice cost less than Natural Gas on the 2027 Spring Equinox?

Dec 8, 6:30 AMMar 21, 3:59 AM

37.17%chance

443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

79

Will São Paulo Metro Line 6 (Orange) be operational by 2026?

Dec 17, 8:39 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

28.74%chance

541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

46

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