Orly News

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

9.04%chance

18031036403

OptionVotes

YES

36274

6099

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.81%chance

459334149

OptionVotes

YES

2689

2519

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158482

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2027

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.76%chance

147124531

OptionVotes

YES

14625

9119

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

13461

7504

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.58%chance

4911718

OptionVotes

YES

42800

34518

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

39.18%chance

207516

OptionVotes

YES

12458

8027

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

10480

9542

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42%chance

62029

OptionVotes

YES

11755

8505

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

141602

OptionVotes

YES

10441

9624

Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?

Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.5%chance

6731

OptionVotes

YES

10255

9775

Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026.

Jan 16, 7:19 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.52%chance

6147

OptionVotes

YES

126

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Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?

Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026.

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