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Prediction markets for Oxford
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10%chance
8141187
OptionVotes
29364
2889
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM
8519498
OptionProbability
98
97
88
82
82
82
78
75
63
63
62
57
54
53
51
40
21
13
Will White British People Become a Minority in the United Kingdom by 2060?
Sep 1, 3:01 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
64.17%chance
364484
OptionVotes
1092
895
Will a majority of Shakespeare scholars be Oxfordians by 2030?
Oct 3, 7:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
10.08%chance
121222
OptionVotes
1591
801
OptionProbability
86
4
4
4
4
What university will generate the highest number of new Nobel Laureate faculty between 2023 and 2033?
Jan 10, 7:06 AMFeb 2, 4:59 AM
5814
OptionProbability
48
48
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
When will the proposed Oxford UK flood alleviation scheme begin construction?
Oct 15, 12:22 AMDec 16, 11:59 PM
5800
OptionProbability
26
26
19
10
8
8
1
1
OptionProbability
72
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
82
4
4
4
4
Would Oxbridge win University Challenge without college-level entries?
Dec 18, 9:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
57.65%chance
8296
OptionVotes
109
69
Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?
Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM
45.27%chance
6255
OptionVotes
1100
909
When will Oxford Nanopore Technology release a commercial protein sequencing platform?
May 21, 6:51 PMApr 21, 6:47 PM
155
OptionProbability
66
66
66
66
66
59
50
50
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