PA News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.63%chance

947615039

OptionVotes

YES

10662

9276

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.17%chance

793419470

OptionVotes

YES

25491

17311

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56%chance

176211853

OptionVotes

YES

6050

3063

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158482

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2027

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?

Aug 16, 1:44 AMJun 17, 6:59 AM

67.18%chance

191142497

OptionVotes

YES

159534

34939

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

94107306

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.33%chance

11317915

OptionVotes

YES

14461

8011

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

204059

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

Shapiro is arrested

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 5:20 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10441

OptionProbability

YES

248

161

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

22.04%chance

6178

OptionVotes

YES

188

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:24 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.96%chance

2128

OptionVotes

YES

194

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

941

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Prediction markets for PA

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Prediction markets for PA

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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