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Prediction markets for PA

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.42%chance

980742026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10411

9511

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53%chance

278453833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6266

2810

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

256148529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1209

426

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

15484594

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

234504

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

20

6

5

5

3

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic primary for PA Senate Seat?

Mar 20, 6:48 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

162485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

427

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.91%chance

4621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

947

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 5:20 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10441

OptionProbability

YES

NO

248

161

PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO

Oct 18, 11:14 AMNov 5, 10:59 PM

96%chance

3390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

20

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

16.66%chance

8227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:24 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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