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Prediction markets for Page
Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
2.35%chance
72114465
OptionVotes
15315
596
Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
98.55%chance
2834265
OptionVotes
8247
121
Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?
Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
2.75%chance
234192
OptionVotes
4668
746
I remember this market and open this page between May 1-3, 2026?
Aug 3, 9:23 PMMay 4, 9:19 PM
77.14%chance
61083
OptionVotes
1837
544
How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?
Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
42.92%chance
17822
OptionProbability
1097
737
Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?
Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
48.67%chance
6440
OptionVotes
1027
974
By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?
Apr 9, 2:28 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
62.04%chance
8181
OptionVotes
155
111
Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?
Jan 2, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
13.06%chance
7158
OptionVotes
258
39
By 2040, will Shakespeare's Wikipedia page say it's likely Thomas North authored at least one play attributed to him?
Sep 9, 4:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
15%chance
6140
OptionVotes
238
42
Wikipedia pages about books have useful information on book length (word count) by mid 2028
Apr 29, 8:08 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
26.73%chance
6129
OptionVotes
233
83
150+ page fanfic romance novel of janus/@repligate with gwern by EOY2028
Apr 24, 7:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
46.33%chance
316
OptionVotes
108
93
Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?
Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100