Park Güell News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Trump and Obama shake hands

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines)

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

The Last Unicorn by Peter Beagle

Alcatraz versus the Evil Librarians by Brandon Sanderson

The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud

The Mysterious Benedict Society by Trenton Stewart

The Rithmatist by Brandon Sanderson

Sabriel by Garth Nix

The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster

Holes by Louis Sachar

Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card

Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson

Small Gods by Terry Pratchett

Animorphs (series) by K. A. Applegate

Have Spacesuit Will Travel by Robert Heinlein

The Witches by Roald Dahl

Call of the Wild by Jack London

Watership Down by Richard Adams

The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes by Arthur Conan Doyle

Harry Potter and the methods of rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky

Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury

The Scarlet Pimpernel by Baroness Orczy

The Dark Lord of Derkholm by Diana Wynn Jones

Howl’s Moving Castle by Diana Wynn Jones

Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir

Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton

Airborne by Kenneth Oppel

Eagle of the Ninth by Rosemary Sutcliffe

Mr Midshipman Hornblower by C S Forester

Mythology by Edith Hamilton

A Magical Girl Retires by Park Seolyeon

The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories by Ken Liu

Tales of the Unexpected by Roald Dahl

Magician: Apprentice by Raymond E. Feist

Andromeda Strain by Michael Chriton

The Martian by Andy Weir

The Culture series by Iain M Banks

On Basilisk Station (Honor Harrington #1) by David Weber

Large Tech company announces layoffs

Pope Francis dies

New Pope

Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/

Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)

Nintendo Direct airs

bitcoin reaches a new all time high

joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video

new iphone releases

elon musk has another child

Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude

A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding

Dutch coalition resigns

gpt 5 released

New CEO of Twitter

Israel : Hamas Ceasefire

Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time

Skate 4 Release

6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states

Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)

spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025

White House goes under lockdown for any period of time

any country starts a new invasion of another country

at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)

Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital

MLB World Series won by the National League team

Russia : Ukraine ceasefire

MLB World Series won by the American League team

official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)

there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice

hollow knight silksong releases

Assassination of an African head of state

Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers

Imu face reveal in One Piece

Starliner program terminated

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)

Assassination of a North American or South American head of state

Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce

grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa

Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table

Trump threatens to deport Musk

Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19

chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods

Joe Biden dies

Bitcoin hits $200k USD

23andMe goes private

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%

H5N1 pandemic declared

tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized

The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series

USA government shutdown

nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)

commercial airline hijacking

destiny talks to joe rogan

Assassination of a European or Asian head of state

Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***

Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023

Donald Trump dies

Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel

MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers

North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death

AI wipes out humanity

Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ

bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less

Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens

Vladimir Putin dies

Chat GPT 6 releases

Spider Man beyond the Spiderverse releases after the delay from March 2024

LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype

linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year

Sesame Street

Jeopardy

Simpsons

Battlebots

Cyberchase

Wheel of Fortune

Homestar Runner

Peppa Pig

Bobs Burgers

Survivor

Antiques Roadshow

Rick and Morty

Spongebob Squarepants

Shark Tank

Ancient Aliens

Paw patrol

NCIS

South Park

Bluey

Severence

The Bear

Ghost Adventures

Storage Wars

Deadliest Catch

Family Feud

Black Mirror

Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Pawn Stars

Phineas and Ferb

American Pickers

Family Guy

Abbott Elementry

Teen Titans Go!

Robot Chicken

Beavis and Butt Head

Law & Order (revival)

The Incredible Dr Pol

Ghost Hunters

Impractical Jokers

American Horror Story

Law & Order: SVU

Grey's Anatomy

White Lotus

Forged in Fire

Hazbin Hotel

Is it Cake

American Dad

True Detective

Futurama

Curb Your Enthusiasm

Red vs Blue

Stranger Things

Other

28 Years Later

Mickey 17

Havoc

The Accountant 2

Warfare

Nonnas

Sinners

Minecraft

Snow White

Dune 2

zootopia 2

Gorillaz

Devo

The Smiths

John Coltrane

Brian Eno

Björk

Blink 182

Joy Division OR New Order

Iron Maiden

Oasis

Linkin Park

OK Go

Muse

System of a Down

Evercore

Jefferies

Other

Campbell Lutyens

William Blair

Aliashkhab Khizriev

Ilia Topuria

Mario Pinto

Nurullo Aliev

Azamat Murzakanov

Farid Basharat

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Movsar Evloev

Michael Morales

Lerone Murphy

Rafael Ramos Estevam

Jacobe Smith

Hyun Sung Park

Khamzat Chimaev

Andre Lima

No policy response by October 1, 2025

DOJ investigation (e.g., into Paramount, Comedy Central, or creators of South Park)

FCC-related action (e.g., rule change proposal, enforcement targeting streaming or animation content)

Executive order or presidential directive related to media, satire, or political speech

Cardiff Principality Stadium - 4th / 5th July

Manchester Heaton Park - 11th / 12th / 19th / 20th July

London Wembley Stadium - 25th / 26th July / 2nd / 3rd August

Edinburgh Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium - 8th / 9th August

Traci Park (incumbent)