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Prediction markets for Paul

By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?

Feb 4, 2:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.8%chance

648747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2935

654

Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027

Nov 2, 9:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.01%chance

343538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1352

821

Will Jake Paul Become a Boxing World Champion?

Mar 5, 10:04 AMMar 13, 4:59 AM

10%chance

312745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

952

888

Will LeBron James pass Chris Paul in career assists?

Jan 8, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.84%chance

182201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2078

849

Who will Jake Paul have a boxing match with before he retires?

Mar 9, 9:34 AMMar 4, 1:29 PM

111856

OptionProbability

Mike Tyson

Mike Perry

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

Canelo Alvarez

Conor McGregor

KSI

Ryan Garcia

Logan Paul

Johnny Eblen

Neeraj Goyat

Nick Diaz

Jorge Masvidal

Vitor Belfort

Francis Ngannou

Floyd Mayweather

100

100

99

72

58

50

46

46

46

29

24

24

24

24

5

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

241806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

713

Will Rand Paul ever be elected President?

Jan 13, 8:27 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7%chance

161798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

958

874

Will Logan Paul spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?

Dec 29, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.08%chance

201434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

981

Will Logan Paul be arrested before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.54%chance

171355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

839

Will Mike Tyson fight Logan Paul?

Nov 16, 5:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.59%chance

141289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2243

446

Will Paul Biya win the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election?

Jun 17, 10:24 AMOct 3, 10:59 PM

63.59%chance

71245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

757

Will Jake Paul and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2026?

Jul 28, 1:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.35%chance

11381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

954

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