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Prediction markets for Peninsula

Where will the next Pokémon region be inspired by?

Apr 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

206527

OptionProbability

South-East Asia

Oceania

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

North America

Mexico / Central America / Caribbean

South America

Northern Europe (Nordics and British Isles)

Eastern Europe / Central Asia (Former USSR)

Western Europe (France to Poland)

Southern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Balkans, Greece)

Middle East & Northern Africa

East Asia

98

25

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge?

Feb 25, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

105000

OptionProbability

Before Jul 2030

Before Jan 2030

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jul 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

97

94

90

85

80

65

31

3

0

Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?

Sep 11, 8:33 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

49.78%chance

301884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

836

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.88%chance

141298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2094

771

Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?

Mar 31, 5:46 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.55%chance

231274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

933

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026?

Dec 15, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.9%chance

191242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

236

Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan?

Jul 6, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

6612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.1%chance

15338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

956

Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

38.2%chance

13295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

146

Will the Iberian Ibex, aka Iberian Wild Goat (Capra pyrenaica) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 12, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.45%chance

4271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

727

410

Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027?

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.2%chance

6247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

111

Will an island or peninsula be named Tierra de Rincon?

Oct 6, 3:34 PM

20

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