Peninsula News

Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo

Apr 29, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

5813283

OptionProbability

Never found root cause

Cascading failure (like something went wrong and the recovery procedure had an issue that made it worse)

Loss of synchronism

Strain on electrical/transmission infrastructure principally caused by renewable energy sources

Renewables made the grid less stable

Low or insufficient inertia

Battery storage

The cause didn't originate in Spain (was propagated by EU grid)

Bad weather

Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)

It's declared a cyber attack

Cyber attack & Russia-funded

Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)

Cyber attack & independent group

"Intern plugged wrong cable"

Cyber attack & USA-funded

Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?

Sep 11, 8:33 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

48.03%chance

271744

OptionVotes

YES

1105

870

Where will the next Pokémon region be inspired by?

Apr 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

101589

OptionProbability

South-East Asia

Southern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Balkans, Greece)

Oceania

South Asia

North America

Middle East & Northern Africa

East Asia

Mexico / Central America / Caribbean

Western Europe (France to Poland)

Sub-Saharan Africa

South America

Eastern Europe / Central Asia (Former USSR)

Northern Europe (Nordics and British Isles)

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

161278

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Economy

Fundamental research

Space Exploration

Environment and sustainability

Art and culture

Human Rights

Society

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?

Mar 31, 5:46 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.55%chance

231274

OptionVotes

YES

984

933

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

1062

940

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.22%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

1122

944

Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

26.38%chance

9265

OptionVotes

YES

209

144

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.59%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

1044

971

Will the Iberian Ibex, aka Iberian Wild Goat (Capra pyrenaica) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 12, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.91%chance

4221

OptionVotes

YES

677

421

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026?

Dec 15, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

7106

OptionVotes

YES

122

Will an island or peninsula be named Tierra de Rincon?

Oct 6, 3:34 PM

Peninsula News

Prediction markets for Peninsula

Prediction markets for Peninsula

Prediction markets for Peninsula

Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo

Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?

Where will the next Pokémon region be inspired by?

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Will the Iberian Ibex, aka Iberian Wild Goat (Capra pyrenaica) become extinct in the current century?

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026?

Will an island or peninsula be named Tierra de Rincon?

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