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Prediction markets for Peninsula

Where will the next Pokémon region be inspired by?

Apr 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

206527

OptionProbability

South-East Asia

Oceania

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

North America

Mexico / Central America / Caribbean

South America

Northern Europe (Nordics and British Isles)

Eastern Europe / Central Asia (Former USSR)

Western Europe (France to Poland)

Southern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Balkans, Greece)

Middle East & Northern Africa

East Asia

98

25

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?

Sep 11, 8:33 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

48.03%chance

271744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

870

Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?

Mar 31, 5:46 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.55%chance

231274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

933

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

181092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

940

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.49%chance

13748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

853

When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge?

Feb 25, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3338

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jul 2030

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

95

95

90

85

80

80

69

50

30

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.37%chance

15328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

946

Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

35%chance

11287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

160

Will the Iberian Ibex, aka Iberian Wild Goat (Capra pyrenaica) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 12, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.45%chance

4271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

727

410

Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027?

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

6245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

113

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026?

Dec 15, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.37%chance

12172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

530

476

Will an island or peninsula be named Tierra de Rincon?

Oct 6, 3:34 PM

20

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