Persian Gulf News

What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?

Jan 13, 4:09 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

28861390

OptionProbability

Israel and Iran go to war again

Iran strikes Israel with missiles

Iran strikes US bases

Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American

The US launches airstrikes on three different days

Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power

The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed

The US launches airstrikes

Oil futures exceed 80.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

The US launches airstrikes on March 7 (UTC)

The Strait of Hormuz is mined

Any state bordering the Persian Gulf launches an attack on Iran

Oil futures exceed 100.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

Significant protests are reported in February and March

The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)

US ground troops enter Iran

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is killed

There is a full week without airstrikes or other notable combat in March

100

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

Jun 23, 3:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.47%chance

7112049

OptionVotes

YES

5589

2955

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

74.48%chance

313641

OptionVotes

YES

1134

936

Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?

Mar 8, 5:18 PMDec 31, 5:13 PM

183029

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026

Mar 17, 4:10 AMApr 14, 11:59 PM

32.9%chance

251351

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will the US try to capture or blockade kharg island before end of March?

Mar 13, 9:45 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

15836

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 15 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 PMMay 31, 12:04 PM

31.17%chance

10267

OptionVotes

YES

149

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 10 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 PMMay 31, 12:04 PM

56.48%chance

6184

OptionVotes

YES

114

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 20 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

Mar 4, 12:04 PMMay 31, 12:04 PM

33.5%chance

5148

OptionVotes

YES

141

Persian Gulf News

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Prediction markets for Persian Gulf

Prediction markets for Persian Gulf

What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?

Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026

Will the US try to capture or blockade kharg island before end of March?

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 15 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 10 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 20 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

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