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Prediction markets for Pluto

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2040?

Dec 30, 9:14 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.17%chance

233131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

900

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2030?

Jan 10, 11:53 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.74%chance

163036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2650

918

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2050?

Jan 1, 8:39 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5%chance

162785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1781

906

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2045?

Dec 31, 11:33 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.65%chance

242523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

915

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2050?

Jan 8, 11:09 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

14.64%chance

182016

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

723

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Aug 24, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

221750

OptionProbability

Other

Enceladus

Mars

Europa

Titan

Venus

Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

K2-18 b

Earth

The Big Bang

Ceres

Pluto/Charon

Triton

Pluto

Charon

TRAPPIST-1d

Proxima Centauri b

Unknown

25

22

20

15

10

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2040?

Dec 30, 2:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5.61%chance

81693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

381

81

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2045?

Dec 30, 6:30 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10%chance

131508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

764

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

Apr 19, 1:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

141026

OptionProbability

Phobos

Deimos

Ceres

Vesta

Europa

Callisto

Ganymede

Titan

Pallas

Enceladus

Iapetus

Tethys

Miranda

Triton

Mercury

Pluto

Charon

Titania

Io

Venus

Eris

64

57

55

52

49

47

44

43

34

34

27

27

27

27

25

21

21

18

16

13

5

Will Pluto be reclassified as a planet before 2050?

Mar 22, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.47%chance

32982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

894

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2035?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

2.22%chance

11932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

886

129

Will tech bros turn the US into an open oligarchy / plutocracy?

Jan 19, 5:56 PMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

51.98%chance

4161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

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