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Prediction markets for PRC

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80.25%chance

291896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

823

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will Taiwan invade the PRC by 2050?

Aug 13, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.55%chance

9632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

Bridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040

Sep 4, 8:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.82%chance

4330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

460

82

Will the US accuse the PRC of putting Taiwanese people into Concentration Camps any time through 2028?

Sep 11, 1:10 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

24.51%chance

9260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

88

Given a PRC invasion which controls Taiwan for at least a month, will there be real resistance fighters, through 2034

Sep 11, 4:05 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.23%chance

10175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

147

Will another member of the Central Military Commission of the PRC be removed from their position before Spring 2028?

Nov 2, 12:48 PMApr 1, 3:59 PM

72.78%chance

491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

66

Will the PRC appoint a Governor of Taiwan before 2030?

Jul 18, 2:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.94%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will Hong Kong become a province of the PRC before 2047?

Nov 13, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

43.75%chance

553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

62

Will Hong Kong become a province of the PRC in 2047?

Nov 13, 3:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

53.19%chance

446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

83

Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?

Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

January 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

January 1st 2028

July 1st 2025

50

50

50

28

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