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Prediction markets for PRC

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80.25%chance

291896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

823

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Which of Taiwan/ROC's 'diplomatic allies' will 'flip' to the PRC before 2028?

Jan 31, 1:17 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7424

OptionProbability

Haiti

Tuvalu

Vatican City

Paraguay

Guatemala

Saint Lucia

Belize

Palau

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Eswatini

Marshall Islands

Saint Kitts and Nevis

80

79

63

51

50

50

34

34

25

20

10

10

Will Leopold Aschenbrenner be sanctioned by the PRC by 2029

Jun 11, 7:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.51%chance

3416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

430

25

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will Putin flee to the PRC before the end of 2030?

Aug 29, 2:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

11.81%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

116

At least 2m Taiwanese citizens are physically relocated to the mainland by the PRC through 2033

Sep 4, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

89

Will another State Councillor of the PRC be removed from their position before Spring 2028?

Nov 2, 12:14 PMApr 1, 3:59 PM

70.73%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

50

Will the PRC appoint a Governor of Taiwan before 2030?

Jul 18, 2:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.94%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will Hong Kong become a province of the PRC before 2047?

Nov 13, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

43.75%chance

553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

62

Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?

Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

January 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

January 1st 2028

July 1st 2025

50

50

50

28

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