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Prediction markets for PRC

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Land Bridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040

Sep 4, 9:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7%chance

7449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

126

Will Leopold Aschenbrenner be sanctioned by the PRC by 2029

Jun 11, 7:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.51%chance

3416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

430

25

Will the US accuse the PRC of putting Taiwanese people into Concentration Camps any time through 2028?

Sep 11, 1:10 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

24.51%chance

9260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

88

Given a PRC invasion which controls Taiwan for at least a month, will there be real resistance fighters, through 2034

Sep 11, 4:05 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.23%chance

10175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

147

Will Hong Kong be an SAR of the PRC in 2050?

Nov 13, 3:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

35.16%chance

5136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

104

Will the PRC hold at least 100 American POW, ever, through 2029

Aug 28, 6:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.29%chance

691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

150

Will another member of the Central Military Commission of the PRC be removed from their position before Spring 2028?

Nov 2, 12:48 PMApr 1, 3:59 PM

72.78%chance

491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

66

Will the PRC have a nationwide property tax by 2028?

May 12, 7:20 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

33.64%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?

Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

January 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

January 1st 2028

July 1st 2025

50

50

50

28

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