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Prediction markets for Providence
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM
35.64%chance
7162156
OptionVotes
992
946
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027
Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM
40%chance
7914918
OptionVotes
1225
817
Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
8.59%chance
187032
OptionVotes
5849
1061
Will SpaceX be the cheapest ($ / kg) commercial provider to LEO on 2035-01-01
Nov 29, 10:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
70.09%chance
3948
OptionVotes
1008
959
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?
May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM
57.17%chance
19714
OptionVotes
1129
879
Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?
Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.55%chance
5697
OptionVotes
1050
952
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?
Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM
55.24%chance
4400
OptionVotes
1111
900
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.02%chance
3192
OptionVotes
1020
981
OptionVotes
1095
1027
OptionVotes
1050
952