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Top stories

Providence’s Viral ‘Nicest Judge’ Frank Caprio Dies at 88

Providence’s Viral ‘Nicest Judge’ Frank Caprio Dies at 88

Authors

63

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Providence

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

35.64%chance

7262178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

946

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.34%chance

2114853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8189

891

Will AI be able to provide an end-to-end plan for bioweapons production by 2026 EOY?

Jan 16, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.77%chance

2811325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2288

188

Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?

Aug 25, 5:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.78%chance

181090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

873

Will SpaceX be the cheapest ($ / kg) commercial provider to LEO on 2035-01-01

Nov 29, 10:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.09%chance

3948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

959

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?

May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

57.17%chance

19714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

879

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

752

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

876

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.92%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

When will Vikram provide the communication boxes?

Feb 4, 8:18 PMDec 31, 8:18 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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