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Prediction markets for Putnam

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.44%chance

5217397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

871

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.12%chance

5512961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

621

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Jan 5, 10:59 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

72.02%chance

236555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1578

630

Putnam Top 100 #2: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2026?

May 4, 8:32 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

83.6%chance

81537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10424

7802

Which college will get 3rd place on the 2025 Putnam exam?

Mar 6, 6:00 AMFeb 13, 4:59 AM

8488

OptionProbability

Stanford

Other

Carnegie Mellon

Harvard

MIT

Duke

59

19

11

5

4

2

How many years between AI winning IMO and Putnam?

Oct 28, 12:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6276

OptionProbability

0

Putnam first

1-3

> 3

52

45

2

1

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2027?

Feb 10, 1:07 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

3265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

544

100

Will Monkey get perfect score on Putnam exam by 2060?

Aug 4, 12:55 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17%chance

7168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

102

Putnam Top 100 #3: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2027?

May 4, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.76%chance

5160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

44

How many years will pass from AI aceing Putnam to a Millenium Prize problem getting solved?

Jan 30, 11:26 PMFeb 22, 10:59 PM

4155

OptionProbability

1-2

0

3-5

6+

Millenium Prize first

29

22

22

22

5

Putnam Top 100 #4: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2028?

May 4, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.62%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

22

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