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Prediction markets for Rate Field
OptionProbability
20
15
13
12
11
8
7
6
4
3
1
Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.7%chance
266994
OptionVotes
7748
3856
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
OptionVotes
2485
402
Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?
May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM
59.29%chance
303064
OptionVotes
1075
815
How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
Jul 7, 5:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
262959
OptionProbability
35
20
20
8
7
5
2
2
1
1
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?
Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
33.81%chance
311250
OptionVotes
1356
711
Which presidents will become more highly rated by presidential historians between 2021 and 2025?
Jul 8, 5:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
13977
OptionProbability
69
60
50
50
45
44
44
38
35
30
30
29
21
20
17
12
7
7
OptionProbability
76
8
3
3
3
3
3
1
Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?
Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.98%chance
11284
OptionVotes
1086
947
ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040
Mar 26, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35%chance
467
OptionVotes
136
73