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Top stories

Savannah Bananas Play Two Sold-Out Banana Ball Games at Rate Field, Broadcast on TruTV and HBO Max

Savannah Bananas Play Two Sold-Out Banana Ball Games at Rate Field, Broadcast on TruTV and HBO Max

Authors

9

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Rate Field

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

437787

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will Bitcoin be carbon-neutral by 2030?

Jul 5, 7:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

223199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

402

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

69.7%chance

302778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

920

How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?

Jul 7, 5:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

241971

OptionProbability

11-15

21-25

16-20

26-30

6-10

31-35

1-5

36-40

41-45

Other

33

29

24

6

3

2

1

1

1

1

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.59%chance

301040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

838

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

3297

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2040-2045

2035-2040

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2060

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

11

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Which presidents will become more highly rated by presidential historians between 2021 and 2025?

Jul 8, 5:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7200

OptionProbability

Jimmy Carter

Barack Obama

William J. Clinton

Franklin D. Roosevelt

Harry S. Truman

John F. Kennedy

Ronald Reagan

Lyndon B. Johnson

Woodrow Wilson

Ulysses S. Grant

George H. W. Bush

Andrew Jackson

George W. Bush

Herbert Hoover

Theodore Roosevelt

Thomas Jefferson

Richard M. Nixon

Donald J. Trump

79

70

69

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

46

38

13

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Mar 26, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

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