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OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
New James Bond actor is presented
"The New Norm" ends
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
A new supreme court justice appointed
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Approval < 35%
USA experiences a recession.
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
trump gets hospitalized
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
Fair elections in 2028
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Vances have another kid
US national bitcoin reserve created
The US leaves the World Health Organization
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Government shutdown
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Joe Biden dies
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
A major war in Asia occurs
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
New
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Trump announces he is tired of winning
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
A national ban on gender-affirming care
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
The department of education gets desolved
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Dow rises above 65,000
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Approval < 25%
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Tesla
Another pandemic
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Repeal obamacare
Trump says a racial slur
Trump visits Africa
Trump and Obama shake hands
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
54 or more Republican senate seats
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
JD Vance elected President
Trump runs for a third term
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Laura Loomer gets any government role
Record level unemployment
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Trump gets covid (again)
Constitutional Amendment
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
New national park created
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Starship lands on Mars
10% fewer government agencies
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump dies
Trump gets shot
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Trump bans abortion nationwide
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
"covfefe" posted again
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
US Invasion of any North/South American country
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
John Bolton indicted
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
American Manned Lunar Landing
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
New US national anthem
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Cannabis is federally legalized
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Trump and Melania divorce
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump is assassinated
Constitutional Amendment
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump loses the fake tan
A hurricane will be nuked
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Jimmy Carter dies
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
A Second Term
Both
Prison
Neither
90
6
4
0
OptionProbability
Before US has the first female president
Before Trump serves time in prison
Before human land on mars
Before human set foot on moon again
Before the end of 2030
Before the end of 2027
Before the end of 2028
Before the end of 2026
Before the end of 2029
Before the end of Dec 2025
Before the end of Jan 2025
Before the end of Feb 2025
Before the end of Mar 2025
Before the end of Apr 2025
Before the end of May 2025
Before the end of Jun 2025
Before the end of May 2024
Before the end of Jun 2024
Before the end of July 2024
Before the end of Aug 2024
Before the end of Sep 2024
Before the end of Oct 2024
Before the end of Nov 2024
Before the end of Dec 2024
Before Jimmy Carter pass away
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98
98
98
94
91
91
90
89
10
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
RV events
Police as crime solvers
Prison as corrective
Libertarian free will
LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom
Working gives us meaning.
Merit/desert
Neoliberalism
Proof School
LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness
IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence
Rule a Country (discord server)
Religion
Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research
The meaning of life
Quantum computing
Death
meta-irony
Cryptocurrency
Pessimism about the future of the world
Alcohol is needed for life to be fun
Founders/Entrepreneurs
On Manifold, mana inflation
The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)
Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals
Free will in general
Having kids
An apple a day
Nihilism
Clinical Psychology
meta-submissions
focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues
Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future
Children as planetary burden
Anti-capitalism
Analytic philosophy
Continental philosophy
Ockham’s razor
Free Trade
Deontological ethics
Capitalism
Utilitarianism
Freedom
Modernity
The analytic-synthetic distinction
Veganism
Technological progress as a good thing
Moral relativism
Classical literature
Artificial Intelligence
Being in shape
Rationality
Effective Altruism
AI Doomerism
Longevity/immortality
Politics
Therapy
Free Speech
The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated
The anti- AI art movement
Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)
Taking things seriously
Enlightenment
Unconditional love
Reason
Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)
Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world
Atheism
Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good
Psychedelics
Privacy
Living
Prediction markets
democracy
Biodiversity
Virtue
Money as corrupting force in politics
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15
OptionProbability
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature
Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024? https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-wokeness-recede-significantly
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
100
100
100
100
91
70
49
35
32
19
10
8
2
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Joe Biden dies
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
Official sub 2:00 marathon
chat gpt 6 released
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Human steps foot on the moon again
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
The United States leaves NATO
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
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59
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51
51
50
45
41
36
29
28
26
26
7
6
OptionProbability
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature
Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024? https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-wokeness-recede-significantly
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
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99
90
56
54
49
43
25
8
6
2
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
DA recommends resentencing before 2025
Resentencing occurs but both brothers remain in prison in 2026
Resentencing occurs AND both brothers released before 2026
Judge orders new trial before 2026
Resentencing occurs and brothers receive different sentences
Resentencing occurs before 2025
100
90
6
5
4
0
OptionProbability
Slime Rancher 3
Red Dead Redemption 3
Half Life 3
Alan Wake 3
Risk of Rain 3
Overcooked 3
Death Stranding 3
Hades 3
Helldivers 3
Dead Island 3
Overwatch 3
Destiny 3
Banjo Kazooie 3
Remnant 3
Guild Wars 3
Rivals of Aether 3
Slay the Spire 3
Frostpunk 3
Titanfall 3
Supreme Commander 3
Chameleon Twist 3
World of Goo 3
Starcraft 3
Left 4 Dead 3
Super Mario Galaxy 3
Battle for Middle Earth 3
Hello Neighbor 3
Team Fortress 3
Bioshock 3
Portal 3
Planetside 3
Counter Strike 3
Hotline Miami 3
Prison Architect 3
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45
45
44
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42
42
41
36
34
32
28
27
24
20
6
4
OptionProbability
Trainspotting
Prisoners
Wolfwalkers
Parasite
Amadeus
Nightcrawler
Whiplash
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Moonrise Kingdom
Blade Runner
Silo
Godzilla Minus One
The Creator
The World's End
Firefly Serenity
Galaxy Quest
Evolution
Iron Man I
The LOTR trilogy, extended editions
Avatar: The Way of Water
10 Cloverfield Lane
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59
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38
24
OptionProbability
Wilful killing
Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;
Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;
Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;
Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would...
Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;
Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;
Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict...
Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;
Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;
Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, ...
Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;
Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
Employing poison or poisoned weapons;
Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;
Taking of hostages.
Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;
Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;
Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;
Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military...
Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;
Declaring that no quarter will be given;
Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal...
Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;
Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;
The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or ...
Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor ...
Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;
Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;
Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;
Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into the national armed forces or using them to participate actively in hostilities.
87
80
79
77
66
62
59
55
46
45
45
45
45
43
41
40
40
39
34
31
30
30
30
29
27
25
25
24
24
20
20
20
10
8
OptionProbability
Rawhi Fattouh
Other
Marwan Barghouti (currently in prison)
Mohammad Shtayyeh (current Prime Minister)
Hussein al-Sheikh (currently secretary-general of the Executive Committee)
Mohammed Dahlan (currently in exile in UAE)
Ismail Haniyeh (Current Hamas leader, in exile in Qatar)
37
30
17
8
3
3
1