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OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
New James Bond actor is presented
"The New Norm" ends
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
trump gets hospitalized
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
The US leaves the World Health Organization
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
Fair elections in 2028
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Approval < 35%
A new supreme court justice appointed
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Vances have another kid
USA experiences a recession.
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
US Invasion of any North/South American country
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
New
Joe Biden dies
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Dow rises above 65,000
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
US national bitcoin reserve created
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
A major war in Asia occurs
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
New national park created
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Trump gets covid (again)
Trump says a racial slur
Trump visits Africa
Tesla
Trump announces he is tired of winning
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
The department of education gets desolved
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
Trump and Obama shake hands
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
Constitutional Amendment
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
Record level unemployment
Repeal obamacare
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
JD Vance elected President
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
10% fewer government agencies
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Another pandemic
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
55 or more Republican senate seats
54 or more Republican senate seats
American Manned Lunar Landing
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Starship lands on Mars
Approval < 25%
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump dies
Laura Loomer gets any government role
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Trump runs for a third term
Trump is seen shirtless
south park is canceled/discontinued
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump gets shot
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
BTC falls below $38,000
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Cannabis is federally legalized
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
Trump extends his term past 4 years
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
A national ban on gender-affirming care
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Constitutional Amendment
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump bans abortion nationwide
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
"covfefe" posted again
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump is assassinated
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
New US national anthem
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Trump loses the fake tan
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump and Melania divorce
SpaceX is nationalized
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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OptionProbability
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Bake it with your best friend.
Bake for 5 more minutes
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Bake for 15 more minutes
Do a second rise
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Improve the bread
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Autolyse 20 minutes
Make the bread taste good
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Bake vodka into it
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Watch the video
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Make banana bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Add garlic
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Let dough sit 48 hrs
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Brush on an egg wash
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Make the bread great again
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
it needs more salt
Bake one more minute
Strawberry jelly filling
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake vegimite into it.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Use lemonade instead of water.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Increase water by 50 g
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Quadruple salt
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Half yeast
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
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OptionProbability
Prison for life without possibility of parole
Death penalty
Prison for life with possibility of parole
Fixed term of years with possibility of parole
Acquitted/No Punishment
Fixed term of years without possibility of parole
Other
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OptionProbability
Before US has the first female president
Before Trump serves time in prison
Before human land on mars
Before human set foot on moon again
Before the end of 2030
Before the end of 2029
Before the end of 2027
Before the end of 2028
Before the end of 2026
Before the end of Dec 2025
Before the end of Jan 2025
Before the end of Feb 2025
Before the end of Mar 2025
Before the end of Apr 2025
Before the end of May 2025
Before the end of Jun 2025
Before the end of May 2024
Before the end of Jun 2024
Before the end of July 2024
Before the end of Aug 2024
Before the end of Sep 2024
Before the end of Oct 2024
Before the end of Nov 2024
Before the end of Dec 2024
Before Jimmy Carter pass away
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OptionProbability
RV events
Police as crime solvers
Prison as corrective
Libertarian free will
Working gives us meaning.
LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom
IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence
Merit/desert
Neoliberalism
Proof School
Having kids
LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness
The meaning of life
Rule a Country (discord server)
Religion
The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)
Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research
Quantum computing
Death
Alcohol is needed for life to be fun
meta-irony
Cryptocurrency
Pessimism about the future of the world
Founders/Entrepreneurs
On Manifold, mana inflation
Free will in general
Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals
An apple a day
Clinical Psychology
Nihilism
meta-submissions
Children as planetary burden
focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues
Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future
Anti-capitalism
Ockham’s razor
Free Trade
Deontological ethics
Analytic philosophy
Continental philosophy
Utilitarianism
Modernity
Capitalism
Freedom
The analytic-synthetic distinction
Veganism
Technological progress as a good thing
Moral relativism
Classical literature
Therapy
Being in shape
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Artificial Intelligence
Longevity/immortality
AI Doomerism
Politics
Free Speech
The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated
The anti- AI art movement
Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)
Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world
Enlightenment
Taking things seriously
Unconditional love
Reason
Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)
Psychedelics
Atheism
Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good
Privacy
Living
Prediction markets
democracy
Biodiversity
Virtue
Money as corrupting force in politics
91
90
87
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85
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80
79
79
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66
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61
59
56
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50
50
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32
30
30
28
28
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25
23
23
22
22
21
20
15
OptionProbability
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature
Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024? https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-wokeness-recede-significantly
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
100
100
100
100
100
69
57
35
32
19
8
7
2
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
Joe Biden dies
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
Official sub 2:00 marathon
chat gpt 6 released
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Human steps foot on the moon again
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
The United States leaves NATO
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
90
85
82
81
74
73
72
65
65
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62
59
52
51
51
50
45
41
36
31
29
28
26
26
7
6
OptionProbability
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature
Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024? https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-wokeness-recede-significantly
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
100
99
99
99
65
63
49
43
7
7
5
2
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
DA recommends resentencing before 2025
Resentencing occurs but both brothers remain in prison in 2026
Resentencing occurs and brothers receive different sentences
Judge orders new trial before 2026
Resentencing occurs AND both brothers released before 2026
Resentencing occurs before 2025
100
97
4
3
1
0
OptionProbability
Half Life 3
Red Dead Redemption 3
Alan Wake 3
Slime Rancher 3
Frostpunk 3
Hades 3
Risk of Rain 3
Guild Wars 3
Overcooked 3
Death Stranding 3
Dead Island 3
Helldivers 3
Destiny 3
Banjo Kazooie 3
Remnant 3
Rivals of Aether 3
Hollow Knight 3
Starcraft 3
Titanfall 3
Supreme Commander 3
World of Goo 3
Left 4 Dead 3
Slay the Spire 3
Chameleon Twist 3
Super Mario Galaxy 3
Battle for Middle Earth 3
Overwatch 3
Planetside 3
Hello Neighbor 3
Team Fortress 3
Bioshock 3 (after Infinite)
Counter Strike 3
Portal 3
Hotline Miami 3
Prison Architect 3
88
85
83
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79
70
70
70
70
69
61
58
54
53
50
50
50
47
45
45
43
42
40
39
36
36
35
35
34
32
28
20
18
6
4
OptionProbability
Trainspotting
Prisoners
Wolfwalkers
Parasite
Amadeus
Nightcrawler
Whiplash
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Moonrise Kingdom
Silo
Blade Runner
Godzilla Minus One
The Creator
The World's End
Firefly Serenity
Galaxy Quest
Evolution
Iron Man I
The LOTR trilogy, extended editions
10 Cloverfield Lane
Avatar: The Way of Water
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71
71
70
69
68
66
61
60
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
38
OptionProbability
Boaty
Solomission
Gnomonkey
C Engineer
Coxie
Dino
Eliop14
Itswill
Josh
Maybejessi
Mika
Mr Mammal
Odablock
Potatohime
Prison Joe
Sick Nerd
Skill Specs
Torvesta
Virtoso
14
10
7
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4