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Prediction markets for Red Line

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

42.09%chance

555181377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2731

1983

Will any supercomputer reach 1 zettaFLOP before 2035?

Dec 11, 3:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

82.23%chance

232000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1340

840

In which year will global warming reach 1.5 degrees Celsius?

Oct 14, 2:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

91549

OptionProbability

2025

2031

2032

2030

2029

2028

Not in this century

2026

2027

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Later this century

Other

14

12

11

8

7

6

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Max Verstappen joins Mercedes?

Jul 4, 8:26 AMJul 11, 8:26 AM

19.61%chance

10554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

49

Will this year’s MLB World Series winner be from a city east of the Mississippi River?

Jan 15, 8:19 PMNov 3, 5:59 AM

50.39%chance

7481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Who will be the Joseph Welch of Trumpism? (Resolves in 2045)

Mar 3, 9:15 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

4420

OptionProbability

No single individual will emerge as a clear 'Joseph Welch' figure

A Republican politician who breaks with the party

A whistleblower from within Trump's inner circle

A Supreme Court Justice

A former Trump administration official

A religious leader

A high-profile journalist or media personality

A prominent legal figure or judge

A Democratic politician

A celebrity or public figure with broad appeal

A tech industry leader

83

42

42

17

17

17

13

11

11

11

11

Will one of the teams that left the race in 2025 start at Etoile de Besseges in 2026?

Feb 10, 5:12 PMFeb 18, 5:59 AM

66.59%chance

5412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1412

708

Will DC metro trains (all lines) have no staff onboard by 2035?

May 20, 12:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will MBTA trains on the Boston red line finally have PM2.5 levels lower than 10 ug/m^3 (like BART trains) by EOY 2027?

Jan 22, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.27%chance

118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

56

45

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

00

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