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Top stories

French Prime Minister François Bayrou Faces Vote of Confidence by September 8 Amid Opposition Criticism and Modem Support

French Prime Minister François Bayrou Faces Vote of Confidence by September 8 Amid Opposition Criticism and Modem Support

Authors

9

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Republic

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

36.28%chance

201368396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

755

Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?

Feb 1, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.46%chance

336175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2455

415

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Jun 1, 6:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62%chance

224418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Aug 27, 3:23 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

23%chance

183187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1830

547

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

241978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

871

By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland?

Mar 29, 2:30 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

19%chance

211509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1523

819

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Jan 18, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.1%chance

301379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

891

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.79%chance

161306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

928

Will Turkey and/or Northern Cyprus occupy the Republic of Cyprus before 2030?

Jan 2, 3:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.5%chance

101083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

803

Will New Zealand become a republic by 2030?

Sep 10, 12:41 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

13.73%chance

15799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

894

Will there be a french Sixth republic by 2040?

Aug 17, 4:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.66%chance

24699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

844

Will New Zealand become a republic by 2100?

Aug 22, 10:06 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

31.51%chance

13429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

966

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