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Top stories

Newsom Advances Plan to Redraw California Map, Counter Texas GOP Redistricting

Newsom Advances Plan to Redraw California Map, Counter Texas GOP Redistricting

Authors

14

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Republicans

Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 20, 12:02 AMFeb 20, 4:59 AM

599669075

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Donald Trump Jr

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump, Sr

Ron Desantis

Glenn Youngkin

Tulsi Gabbard

None

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Josh Hawley

Greg Abbott

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Tim Scott

Tucker Carlson

Kristi Noem

Mike Johnson

Matt Gaetz

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Lauren Boebert

Tom Cotton

Elon Musk

Kari Lake

Sarah Sanders

Chris Sununu

Steven Mnuchin

Brian Kemp

Elise Stefanik

Ben Carson

Jamie Dimon

Ivanka Trump

@Mira

Nick Fuentes

Doug Burgum

Paul Ryan

50

14

9

8

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2028 Republican nominee?

Sep 14, 5:38 AMSep 6, 6:59 AM

282139428

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump Jr

Donald Trump Sr.

Glenn Youngkin

Ron Desantis

Tulsi Gabbard

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Greg Abbott

Paul Ryan

47

21

7

6

4

3

3

3

2

2

1

0

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3074836

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.65%chance

8837404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12909

7762

If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

40.49%chance

397876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

825

Will the 2028 Republican nominee for President be a member of the Trump family?

Apr 12, 8:40 AMSep 30, 1:59 PM

9.51%chance

706875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5306

878

Who will be the Republican nominee for Vice President in 2028?

Jul 18, 10:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

316829

OptionProbability

Other

J.D. Vance

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Scott

Doug Burgum

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

Glenn Youngkin

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Eric Trump

Ivanka Trump

Greg Abbott

48

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

68.23%chance

146243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

682

Will Republicans abolish the filibuster before the end of 2028?

Apr 8, 12:37 PMJan 10, 5:59 AM

12.3%chance

214916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5015

4904

Poll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term?

Mar 20, 7:16 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

59.11%chance

694416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

782

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143600

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

52

28

8

7

4

Trump's Republican approval below 80%?

May 12, 12:00 PMJan 20, 12:39 PM

55.64%chance

323142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1504

1469

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