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Prediction markets for RI

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.17%chance

5701074185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55330

1810

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38680272

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Masayoshi Son

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

An AGI

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

45

25

7

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.02%chance

12354954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1485

80

RightToBearArmsLOL Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 7:05 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

8813960

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6204

1000

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.62%chance

647263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

515

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.31%chance

66603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11826

8456

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

64.03%chance

85478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13342

7495

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?

Sep 2, 8:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

141900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4004

1877

Richard Lewis stock (Permanent)

Jan 8, 7:23 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

141753

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1286

931

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Who will win Puerto Rico in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries?

Nov 5, 11:17 PMJun 30, 12:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Ron DeSantis

44

27

18

12

Who will win Puerto Rico in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries?

Nov 5, 11:17 PMJun 30, 12:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

Other

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

57

20

13

10

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