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Prediction markets for RI

Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.95%chance

205508951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38409

2271

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

98.48%chance

206257456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

98533

4952

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.59%chance

403222724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14166

1436

Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?

Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1%chance

178193532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115702

1609

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.01%chance

164130093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11058

9043

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37778077

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Ellison

Jeff Bezos

Mark Zuckerberg

Sam Altman

Bernard Arnault

Larry Page

Satoshi Nakamoto

Vladimir Putin

Sergey Brin

Vitalik Buterin

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

An AGI

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Eric Schmidt

Masayoshi Son

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

35

28

12

5

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?

Jan 22, 7:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.64%chance

2517177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14536

6105

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

68.85%chance

1710146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14867

6726

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

How many "safe" Senate seats will the Democrats win in 2026? (CO DE MA NJ OR RI VA)

Jul 18, 2:38 AMNov 5, 3:35 AM

5870

OptionProbability

7

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

97

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

How many Disc Golf Majors will Ricky Wysocki win in the 2026 season?

Oct 29, 3:26 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Zero

One

Two

33

33

33

When will Oura Ring 5 be announced?

Nov 25, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:23 AM

00

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H1 2028

H2 2028

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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