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Prediction markets for RI

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.5%chance

5621045650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46103

2172

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38580242

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Masayoshi Son

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

An AGI

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

46

25

7

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

Jan 6, 5:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.65%chance

19737118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3086

1164

RightToBearArmsLOL Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 7:05 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

8813960

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6204

1000

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.7%chance

617158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

556

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.31%chance

66603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11826

8456

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

64.03%chance

85478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13342

7495

How many "safe" Senate seats will the Democrats win in 2026? (CO DE MA NJ OR RI VA)

Jul 18, 2:38 AMNov 5, 3:35 AM

135199

OptionProbability

7

0

3

4

5

6

1

2

95

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Richard Lewis stock (Permanent)

Jan 8, 7:23 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

141753

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1286

931

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?

Sep 2, 8:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.43%chance

121750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4095

1814

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

When will Oura Ring 5 be announced?

Nov 25, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:23 AM

00

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H1 2028

H2 2028

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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