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Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.76%chance

540866797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30427

3291

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38379685

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Masayoshi Son

An AGI

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

39

26

8

6

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

2264477

OptionProbability

2027

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Before EOY

87

6

4

2

1

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

23%chance

9225284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

547

RightToBearArmsLOL Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 7:05 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

8813960

OptionProbability

NO

YES

6204

1000

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.07%chance

607021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

679

How many "safe" Senate seats will the Democrats win in 2026? (CO DE MA NJ OR RI VA)

Jul 18, 2:38 AMNov 5, 3:35 AM

134269

OptionProbability

7

4

0

2

3

6

1

5

87

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

40.06%chance

42342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12232

8175

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

49.68%chance

42140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10064

9936

Richard Lewis stock (Permanent)

Jan 8, 7:23 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

131751

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1284

931

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

When will Oura Ring 5 be announced?

Nov 25, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:23 AM

00

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H1 2028

H2 2028

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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