Roma News

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.56%chance

34292734811

OptionVotes

YES

12383

7881

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.09%chance

494196005

OptionVotes

YES

5011

1123

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

21156696

OptionVotes

YES

2414

976

Tontine

Sep 22, 1:25 AMJan 18, 4:59 AM

3620651

OptionProbability

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@jskf

@Lorxus

@roma

@Anthem

@WilliamEhlhardt

@case

@jcb

@jgyou aka JGY

@Primer

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint

@AlexbGoode

@AnthonyPeterson

@Charlie

@CamillePerrin (NO)

@SeraphinaNix

@tiswtr

@snoozingnewt

@Nikos

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB

@dylanslagh [dup]

@vansh

Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy]

Jan 5, 9:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

72.12%chance

5716956

OptionVotes

YES

2773

1390

Will the Roman Catholic Church permit the ordination of female priests by 2050?

Apr 27, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.33%chance

497835

OptionVotes

YES

1829

1678

Which of the following events will happen first?

Apr 2, 1:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

381876

OptionProbability

Half-Life 3 is released

Taiwan is annexed by China

Man walks on the moon again

The year 2030 begins (and none of the other options has happened)

Both Biden and Trump have died

Bitcoin price reaches $200,000

Forbes announced the world's first trillionaire

A nuclear weapon is used on the battlefield (not a test)

A military coup seizes power in a G8 country

Bitcoin price falls to $10,000

Taylor Swift successfully concludes a second pregnancy

Jimmy Carter turns 102 years old

The number of judges on the US Supreme Court becomes higher than the current 9

Bitcoin recognised as legal tender in at least five G8 countries

Football team AS Roma builds a new stadium and plays the first official game in it

Will there be a romance between Wednesday and Enid in Wednesday season 2?

May 22, 9:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

25.78%chance

41751

OptionVotes

YES

1697

589

Will my new romantic relationship last at least a year?

May 27, 9:58 PMMay 31, 9:57 PM

64.05%chance

191476

OptionVotes

YES

1335

749

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

43.14%chance

3164

OptionVotes

YES

1148

871

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

1093

924

Will "The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 2:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Tontine

Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy]

Will the Roman Catholic Church permit the ordination of female priests by 2050?

Which of the following events will happen first?

Will there be a romance between Wednesday and Enid in Wednesday season 2?

Will my new romantic relationship last at least a year?

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Will "The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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