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Prediction markets for Saharan

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7177

3289

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Where will the next Pokémon region be inspired by?

Apr 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

91426

OptionProbability

Southern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Balkans, Greece)

South America

Oceania

Western Europe (France to Poland)

South Asia

Middle East & Northern Africa

North America

East Asia

Mexico / Central America / Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

South-East Asia

Eastern Europe / Central Asia (Former USSR)

Northern Europe (Nordics and British Isles)

36

25

19

15

15

13

11

11

10

10

10

9

7

Will a country in sub-Saharan Africa be declared malaria-free by the WHO before 2030?

Jan 25, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.03%chance

17964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

938

How many conclaves will occur before a pope of sub-Saharan African origin is elected?

May 8, 12:20 AMNov 3, 12:15 AM

7487

OptionProbability

5 or more

4

3

2

1

41

22

20

16

1

Will the African Wild Dog (Lycaon pictus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.26%chance

8441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

636

237

Will the African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) become Extinct by 2100?

Mar 8, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.05%chance

5296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

794

400

Which regions will become more authoritarian in 2025?

Mar 1, 9:00 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

6221

OptionProbability

North America

Asia and Australasia

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Western Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

95

90

66

66

63

46

34

Will the population of Sub-Saharan Africa exceed 3.5 billion this century?

Nov 2, 1:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.82%chance

7140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

136

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