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Prediction markets for San Francisco Bay

What geographic features will Trump rename? [read description]

Jan 31, 11:10 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

82572

OptionProbability

Sacagawea Peak

Black Hills

San Francisco Bay

District of Columbia

Panama Canal [read comments]

17

13

12

10

8

9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

21.67%chance

302549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

526

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Jun 21, 1:20 AMJan 2, 2:11 AM

10.45%chance

10380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Will the "Colossus to Prometheus" statue be built somewhere in the San Francisco Bay before 2050?

Apr 19, 8:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.2%chance

5354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

120

When will Mixpanel have a liquidity event?

Apr 14, 8:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3155

Where will I be living at the end of 2025?

Jun 12, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5142

OptionProbability

New York City

San Francisco Bay Area

Other

Rest-of-USA (big city)

Rest-of-USA (wherever)

Chicago

Rest-of-world (Britain / Former British colonies outside North America)

Canada

40

22

8

7

7

6

6

4

In 2030, will the Bay Area retain its dominant role and position?

Apr 7, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.32%chance

8104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

148

What's the future outcome for Mixpanel, the company?

Apr 14, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

360

OptionProbability

Acquired by, or merged into, a (non-SPAC) public company

Going public (e.g. IPO, SPAC, Direct listing)

Bankruptcy or going out of business

Other

None of the other options happen by 2060

37

18

18

17

9

If AI destroys the world by 2035, will it be largely due to a company/lab based in the San Francisco Bay Area?

Jul 29, 6:33 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

67.07%chance

554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

141

Where will my home address be in 2028

Mar 30, 5:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

235

OptionProbability

Atlanta Metro Area, Georgia, USA

Other

San Diego Metro Area, California, USA

Pittsburgh Metro Area, Pennsylvania, USA

Switzerland

San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA

Sacramento Metro Area, California USA

Los Angeles Metro Area, California, USA

Raleigh Durham Metro Area, North Carolina, USA

21

16

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Where will the Athletics MLB team play their home games in 2028?

Jun 22, 11:13 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California

Somewhere else outside California

20

20

20

20

20

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