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Santiago News

    Prediction markets for Santiago

    Who will sit on the Board of Peace?

    Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:11 AM
    3619336

    OptionProbability

    Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

    Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

    Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Javier Milei (Argentine President)

    Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

    Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

    Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

    Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

    Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

    Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

    Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

    Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

    Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

    Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

    Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

    Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

    Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

    Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

    Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

    Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

    Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

    Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

    Emmanuel Macron (French President)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    93

    91

    85

    45

    43

    23

    20

    15

    7

    6

    5

    4

    Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?

    Apr 25, 11:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    243997

    OptionProbability

    European hamster (Cricetus cricetus)

    Kākāpō (Strigops habroptila)

    Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana)

    California condor (Gymnogyps californianus)

    Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii)

    African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

    Great hammerhead (Sphyrna mokarran)

    Black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)

    Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla)

    Ammonite Snail (Helenoconcha relicta)

    Hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata)

    Rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis)

    Jellyfish tree (Medusagyne oppositifolia)

    Peacock tarantula (Poecilotheria metallica)

    Santiago Island giant tortoise (Chelonoidis niger darwini)

    Great green macaw (Ara ambiguus)

    Pernambuco pygmy owl (Glaucidium mooreorum)

    Angelshark (Squatina squatina)

    Dromedary naiad (Dromus dromas)

    Sri Lankan relict ant (Aneuretus simoni)

    Seychelles forest scorpion (Lychas braueri)

    Nike's squeaker (Arthroleptis nikeae)

    David's tiger (Parantica davidi)

    Vaquita (Phocoena sinus)

    95

    90

    86

    85

    80

    77

    77

    72

    69

    69

    67

    61

    58

    58

    57

    57

    57

    57

    57

    57

    57

    47

    31

    10

    Which of the following AI-related statements will happen first?

    Jan 4, 10:02 AMDec 11, 10:59 PM
    813018

    OptionProbability

    10 Million Americans have as their primary romantic partner an AI

    10 Million Americans have a home robot for basic household cleaning and other tasks

    70

    30

    Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis?

    Feb 5, 6:33 PMFeb 13, 5:59 AM
    49.43%chance
    542602

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    988

    950

    If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

    Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM
    89.77%chance
    342399

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2962

    338

    Will DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?

    Jan 21, 10:22 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
    41.13%chance
    261275

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1188

    574

    If Trump wins, what will the Democracy Index be for the US at the end of his presidency?

    Mar 10, 5:36 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    15711

    OptionProbability

    <78

    82-83

    80-81

    78-79

    84-85

    >85

    59

    14

    12

    11

    2

    2

    Where will I study abroad?

    Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    7526

    OptionProbability

    Cape Town, South Africa

    NONE

    Oxford, UK

    Madrid, Spain

    Santiago, Chile

    Kyoto, Japan

    Washington, DC

    Other

    Berlin, Germany

    Beijing, China

    Florence, Italy

    New York City

    Paris, France

    Istanbul, Turkey

    Hong Kong

    Australia (mobile)

    72

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    In which city will the 2036 Olympic Games be held?

    Feb 9, 6:58 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM
    15438

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Doha

    Ahmedabad

    Santiago

    Istanbul

    Nusantara

    Seoul

    Chongqing

    Berlin

    Budapest

    Chengdu

    Boston

    Rome

    Madrid

    Johannesburg

    Buenos Aires

    23

    19

    16

    15

    6

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Will there be any passenger Jumbo Jets (A380, B747) still flying by 2035?

    Jun 12, 7:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
    74.73%chance
    483

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    158

    48

    2030 FIFA World Cup final – where?

    Oct 20, 4:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    481

    OptionProbability

    Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

    Camp Nou (Barcelona)

    Grand Stade de Casablanca (Casablanca)

    67

    26

    7

    WILL JOSE LUIS RICON join the Order of Santiago, of Calatrava, Alcantara, or Montesa?

    Jul 15, 5:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    50%chance
    118

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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