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Prediction markets for Senate of the Republic

Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?

Aug 19, 9:50 PMNov 4, 4:59 AM

4518032

OptionProbability

South Dakota

Arkansas

Montana

West Virginia

Kansas

Louisiana

Mississippi

Oklahoma

Wyoming

Tennessee

Idaho

South Carolina

Alabama

Kentucky

Nebraska

Texas

Iowa

Ohio (Special)

Florida (Special)

Alaska

Georgia

North Carolina

Maine

New Hampshire

Michigan

Virginia

Minnesota

New Mexico

New Jersey

Illinois

Colorado

Delaware

Oregon

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

96

95

95

95

94

94

94

94

94

93

92

92

91

91

85

81

78

76

76

66

34

27

26

23

22

15

14

12

6

5

4

4

4

4

2

Who will be the next Republican leader in the Senate?

Sep 7, 8:26 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

187587

OptionProbability

John Thune

Other

John Cornyn

John Barrasso

99

1

0

0

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Dec 8, 6:07 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

80.29%chance

201602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

342

127

Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:18 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

74.82%chance

61554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1724

580

Who Will Win the 2026 Republican Primary Election for US Senate in Texas?

Nov 10, 12:49 AMNov 11, 5:59 AM

7897

OptionProbability

Ken Paxton

John Cornyn

Other

Ronny Jackson

Eric Johnson

Chip Roy

Dan Patrick

Louie Gohmert

Allen West

Dan Crenshaw

Wesley Hunt

58

38

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2025?

Nov 13, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.71%chance

4700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2030 elections?

Dec 8, 6:09 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

69.08%chance

14448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

873

Will an official mugshot of any current Republican senator be published before 2030?

Aug 27, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

72.32%chance

12442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

943

How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)

Jul 18, 3:29 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

5184

OptionProbability

11

10

8 - 9

0 - 2

3 - 5

6 - 7

66

24

5

1

1

1

Will Elissa Slotkin or Tammy Baldwin end up voting for a Trump nominee that >=3 Republican senators vote against?

Nov 8, 1:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.96%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

625

576

Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before 2030?

Nov 13, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.01%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2027?

Nov 13, 8:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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