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Prediction markets for SF

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

2055426

OptionProbability

2027

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Before EOY

85

7

5

2

1

Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?

Jun 16, 5:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

5717571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

890

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

66.02%chance

647730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13908

7205

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:45 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

90.66%chance

105749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3115

321

Will there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?

Dec 31, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

27.44%chance

514178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

739

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:11 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

88.83%chance

72644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2820

355

Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

161607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

466

SF to have a 'ban restaurant fees' ballot prop in 2026?

Mar 9, 11:04 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

20.21%chance

51047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

503

Will SF homelessness rates be higher in 2030 than in 2022

Nov 16, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.58%chance

17939

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

937

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.49%chance

13748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

853

Will psilocybin be legal to sell in SF by 2030?

Oct 14, 9:11 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

80%chance

20382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

901

Will any of the 26 arrested SF GGB Palestine protestors be convicted of false imprisonment

Apr 18, 1:18 AMApr 1, 6:59 AM

20.49%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

64

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