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Prediction markets for SF

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

2285402

OptionProbability

2027

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Before EOY

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

95

2

1

1

1

SF Supervisor D8 Election Winner

Apr 29, 9:15 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

1252032

OptionProbability

Yekutiel, Manny

McCoy, Gary

Patel, Darshini

Nguyen, Michael

Other

55

35

5

4

1

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

69.37%chance

8025385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15021

6674

Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?

Jun 16, 5:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.42%chance

5817646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

777

Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

4017145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16703

3098

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:45 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

90.97%chance

115809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3175

315

SF to have a 'ban restaurant fees' ballot prop in 2026?

Mar 9, 11:04 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

3.52%chance

74297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5237

191

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:11 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

90.68%chance

72944

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3120

321

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.88%chance

141298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2094

771

Will SF homelessness rates be higher in 2030 than in 2022

Nov 16, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.58%chance

17939

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

937

Will SF Prop G to "reopen the Great Highway" LOSE by at least 20 percentage points

Aug 13, 3:57 PMNov 9, 8:00 AM

51.08%chance

5831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

979

Will psilocybin be legal to sell in SF by 2030?

Oct 14, 9:11 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

64.79%chance

21582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

705

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