Shamli News

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2811347

OptionProbability

YES

2527

2310

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

147772

OptionProbability

YES

3202

2454

Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026?

Nov 8, 3:42 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

271426

OptionProbability

Fully fair

Disputed / backsliding

Flawed / substantial backsliding

No election / offices abolished

Sham election

Shamrock Stock

Feb 23, 12:04 AM

181233

OptionProbability

YES

436

Shanks and Shamrock will fight each other?

Jul 3, 12:22 AMJan 1, 1:21 AM

25.84%chance

20941

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will Shamina Begum regain her British citizenship by 2026?

Oct 25, 4:09 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

2%chance

5462

OptionVotes

YES

530

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Jul 30, 7:24 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

2386

OptionProbability

Pineo & Loeb

Funk Hunters

Mat the Allen

Skiitour

ill.gates

Lazy Syrup Orchestra

Longwalkshortdock

Father Funk

A.Skillz

Excision

Moontricks

Clozee

Rezz

Broken Future

Will the United Kingdom cease to proscribe Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Jul 11, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.84%chance

9185

OptionVotes

YES

150

Results of Shamblin v. OpenAI lawsuit?

Nov 15, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2100

OptionProbability

OpenAI settles

OpenAI found guilty of deliberate aid and encouragement of suicide

OpenAI found guilty of anything under the strict products liability doctrine or negligence

Explicit restrictions on ChatGPT or OpenAI's marketing

Goes to trial

OpenAI found guilty of manslaughter

OpenAI employee or executive sentenced to prison

Will Deathrite Shaman be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025?

Oct 19, 4:37 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.63%chance

661

OptionVotes

YES

130

108

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

43.86%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

113

Will Danielle Fong become the shaman of a First Nations tribe?

Sep 26, 2:19 AM

Shamli News

Prediction markets for Shamli

Prediction markets for Shamli

Prediction markets for Shamli

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026?

Shamrock Stock

Shanks and Shamrock will fight each other?

Will Shamina Begum regain her British citizenship by 2026?

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Will the United Kingdom cease to proscribe Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Results of Shamblin v. OpenAI lawsuit?

Will Deathrite Shaman be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025?

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Will Danielle Fong become the shaman of a First Nations tribe?

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