Shamli News

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20139190

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2911502

OptionProbability

YES

2507

2431

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

177883

OptionProbability

YES

3139

2774

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Jul 30, 7:24 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

43076

OptionProbability

ill.gates

Moontricks

Excision

Funk Hunters

Pineo & Loeb

Clozee

Lazy Syrup Orchestra

A.Skillz

Mat the Allen

Skiitour

Longwalkshortdock

Rezz

Father Funk

Broken Future

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Jan 30, 9:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.08%chance

572917

OptionVotes

YES

1066

780

Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026?

Nov 8, 3:42 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

341713

OptionProbability

Fully fair

Disputed / backsliding

Flawed / substantial backsliding

No election / offices abolished

Sham election

Shamrock Stock

Feb 23, 12:04 AM

211686

OptionProbability

YES

229

Will suicide become allowed in any US state by the end of 2029?

Nov 18, 12:46 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.92%chance

21903

OptionVotes

YES

1018

944

In 2030, will the government of Syria be better described as being closer to that of the UAE or Afghanistan?

Dec 12, 2:42 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

36.46%chance

7753

OptionVotes

YES

1320

758

Results of Shamblin v. OpenAI lawsuit?

Nov 15, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6386

OptionProbability

OpenAI settles

OpenAI found guilty of anything under the strict products liability doctrine or negligence

Explicit restrictions on ChatGPT or OpenAI's marketing

OpenAI found guilty of deliberate aid and encouragement of suicide

Goes to trial

OpenAI found guilty of manslaughter

OpenAI employee or executive sentenced to prison

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

25.01%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

1073

958

Will Danielle Fong become the shaman of a First Nations tribe?

Sep 26, 2:19 AM

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If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026?

Shamrock Stock

Will suicide become allowed in any US state by the end of 2029?

In 2030, will the government of Syria be better described as being closer to that of the UAE or Afghanistan?

Results of Shamblin v. OpenAI lawsuit?

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Will Danielle Fong become the shaman of a First Nations tribe?

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