Shamli News

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20138606

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2911502

OptionProbability

YES

2507

2431

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

167833

OptionProbability

YES

3149

2724

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Jan 30, 9:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.06%chance

562867

OptionVotes

YES

1091

730

Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026?

Nov 8, 3:42 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

311474

OptionProbability

Fully fair

Disputed / backsliding

Flawed / substantial backsliding

No election / offices abolished

Sham election

Shamrock Stock

Feb 23, 12:04 AM

191336

OptionProbability

YES

131

In 2030, will the government of Syria be better described as being closer to that of the UAE or Afghanistan?

Dec 12, 2:42 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

36.46%chance

7753

OptionVotes

YES

1320

758

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Jul 30, 7:24 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

2386

OptionProbability

Pineo & Loeb

Funk Hunters

Mat the Allen

Skiitour

ill.gates

Lazy Syrup Orchestra

Longwalkshortdock

Father Funk

A.Skillz

Excision

Moontricks

Clozee

Rezz

Broken Future

Will the United Kingdom cease to proscribe Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Jul 11, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.84%chance

9185

OptionVotes

YES

150

Results of Shamblin v. OpenAI lawsuit?

Nov 15, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2100

OptionProbability

OpenAI settles

OpenAI found guilty of deliberate aid and encouragement of suicide

OpenAI found guilty of anything under the strict products liability doctrine or negligence

Explicit restrictions on ChatGPT or OpenAI's marketing

Goes to trial

OpenAI found guilty of manslaughter

OpenAI employee or executive sentenced to prison

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

43.86%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

113

Will Danielle Fong become the shaman of a First Nations tribe?

Sep 26, 2:19 AM

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If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026?

Shamrock Stock

In 2030, will the government of Syria be better described as being closer to that of the UAE or Afghanistan?

Which musical artists will play at Shambhala 2026?

Will the United Kingdom cease to proscribe Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Results of Shamblin v. OpenAI lawsuit?

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Will Danielle Fong become the shaman of a First Nations tribe?

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