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Prediction markets for Sicily

Who will be victorious in the inaugural EU5 campaign?

Nov 13, 5:46 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

1311242

OptionProbability

Mark - Mamluks

Matan - Bohemia

Will Eden - Two Sicilies

Malte - Muscovy

Olly - France

Kevin - Denmark

Callum - England

Michael - Morocco

Sam - Ottomans

Sheb - Poland

Javier - Aragon

Pavel - Castile N/A

Pete - Milan

Matt - Wallachia

Sean - Brabant

51

26

21

21

15

15

14

13

6

3

2

1

1

1

1

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030

Aug 27, 5:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.16%chance

285057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

858

Will a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?

Jul 5, 9:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

78.93%chance

284020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1970

439

Which of these proposed crossings (bridge, tunnel or a combination) will be open by the end of 2050?

Jan 1, 11:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

61997

OptionProbability

Italian mainland to Sicily (Strait of Messina)

Scottish mainland to Orkney

Bohai Strait crossing, China

Chinese mainland to Hainan (Qiongzhou Strait)

Suðuroy to Sandoy, Faroe Islands

Great Britain to the Isle of Wight

Egypt to Saudi Arabia

Russian mainland to Sakhalin

Finland to Estonia

India to Sri Lanka (Palk Strait)

North Island to South Island, New Zealand (Cook Strait)

Sakhalin to Hokkaido

Java to Sumatra, Indonesia (Sunda Strait)

Morocco to Spain/Gibraltar (Strait of Gibraltar)

Great Britain to Ireland (Irish Sea)

Great Britain to the Isle of Man

Yemen to Dijbouti/Eritrea (Bab-el-Mandeb)

Japan to South Korea

Peninsular Malaysia to Sumatra (Malacca Strait)

Sicily to Tunisia (Strait of Sicily)

Russia to Alaska (Bering Strait)

Chinese mainland to Taiwan (Taiwan Strait)

70

69

69

69

69

63

63

59

59

51

50

41

31

28

25

20

20

20

20

14

13

3

Will Sicily be connected with the mainland by a bridge before 2038?

Mar 18, 10:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.25%chance

191743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

945

Will there be a bridge open to traffic between Sicily and Italy at the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 3:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.69%chance

13640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

511

20

Conditional on a Sicily-mainland bridge being built, will unemployment in Sicily decrease wrt to Italy?

Oct 26, 2:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64%chance

431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

93

Conditional on a Sicily-mainland bridge NOT being built, will unemployment in Sicily decrease wrt to Italy?

Oct 26, 2:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.39%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

46

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