Slack News

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

58.71%chance

214219

OptionVotes

YES

1192

839

Before 2040 will most of the historical anthropic slack be made public

Sep 25, 3:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.79%chance

11899

OptionVotes

YES

1612

620

When will the waiting list for kidney transplants in the US be eliminated?

Oct 17, 8:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13400

OptionProbability

2050 or Later

2030-2034

2040-2049

Before 2030

2035-2039

Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027?

Jul 17, 7:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

15304

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will there be a waiting list for kidney transplants in the US by end of 2030?

Oct 17, 8:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90.06%chance

7227

OptionVotes

YES

351

Will Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?

Oct 4, 12:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2206

OptionProbability

First public listing occurs, but no qualifying acquisition announced in the window

Qualifying Salesforce acquisition announced

Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic publicly listed by December 31, 2028

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

Will G7 countries eliminate plastic pollution by 2040?

Apr 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.17%chance

5111

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will I be a victim of identity theft by the end of 2028

Oct 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.02%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

130

Commitment Panopticon

Oct 29, 8:02 AMDec 31, 7:40 AM

460

OptionProbability

Resolves to the number of steps on 10/30, where each percent corresponds to 100 steps, (10k steps is 100%)

I will find a statistically significant predictor for the "happiness" data feature I collect on myself (daily granularity happiness rating from 1-5, self-assessed), based on the other contextual data I collect (e.g. exercise, sleep times)

I will get out of bed by 6:30am on 11/4

Commitment A

Commitment B

Commitment C

I will get out of bed by 5:30am on 11/4

I will average 10,000 steps per day for the week 10/30 to 11/5

I will book plane tickets by eod 10/30

Will bits in bio slack (bitsinbio.slack.com) finally upgrade so people can have access to more than 90 days, by EOY2027?

Apr 27, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.32%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

114

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

Mar 12, 4:12 AMMar 20, 3:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

130

111

Slack News

Prediction markets for Slack

Prediction markets for Slack

Prediction markets for Slack

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Before 2040 will most of the historical anthropic slack be made public

When will the waiting list for kidney transplants in the US be eliminated?

Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027?

Will there be a waiting list for kidney transplants in the US by end of 2030?

Will Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Will G7 countries eliminate plastic pollution by 2040?

Will I be a victim of identity theft by the end of 2028

Commitment Panopticon

Will bits in bio slack (bitsinbio.slack.com) finally upgrade so people can have access to more than 90 days, by EOY2027?

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

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