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Prediction markets for Slack

How many Hack Clubbers will there be on Manifold on April 1st, 2026?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMApr 1, 9:07 AM

132873

OptionProbability

Above 15

Above 30

Above 20

Above 50

Above 75

Above 100

Above 150

Above 200

Above 300

Above 500

99

99

98

30

8

6

6

6

3

1

How deep in the pipeline will each Hack Clubber be in June 2026?

Dec 22, 4:05 PMJun 1, 3:25 PM

192298

OptionProbability

@jollyroger182

@/Lucas11

@/izie

@dld

@Xelphyr (@/cafeEntity in Slack)

@root

@Firepup650

@/Rowan

@SuyashABadlyDrawnWobbler

@/Tim

@121

@sadeshmukh

@bohaska

@JeremyWoolley

@realDonaldTrump

99

97

95

87

84

81

74

70

50

50

26

11

8

6

3

The next mainline 3D Mario game will cost $69+

Jan 9, 8:28 PMMay 15, 7:48 PM

96.93%chance

211540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1301

79

will I vibe with a community found through this market within a year?

May 11, 9:19 PMMay 12, 7:08 PM

31.56%chance

13678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1472

679

When will the waiting list for kidney transplants in the US be eliminated?

Oct 17, 8:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13378

OptionProbability

2050 or Later

2030-2034

2040-2049

Before 2030

2035-2039

42

27

13

9

9

Will there be a waiting list for kidney transplants in the US by end of 2030?

Oct 17, 8:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90.06%chance

7227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

351

99

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

Will G7 countries eliminate plastic pollution by 2040?

Apr 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.17%chance

5111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

64

Will bits in bio slack (bitsinbio.slack.com) finally upgrade so people can have access to more than 90 days, by EOY2027?

Apr 27, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.32%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

Mar 12, 4:12 AMMar 20, 3:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

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