South China News

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5248082

OptionProbability

China sanctioned by US + Europe

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

Japan allows use of airbases

US military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded

Chinese mainland bombed

Taiwan surrenders

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

Japanese military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

China attacks Japan

Food shortages in China

Oil shortages in China

Philippines attacked by Chinese

Guam attacked by Chinese

Philippines allows use of airbases

South Korea allows use of airbases

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

European military intervention

Japan attacked by Chinese

South Korean military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Indian military intervention

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

US destroys TSMC factories

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Nuclear weapon used against civilians

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, where it will be dropped first?

Nov 2, 10:52 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

296304

OptionProbability

Iran

Ukraine

South China Sea

India

Pakistan

Russia

United States

Taiwan

Jerusalem

Belarus

South Korea

Seoul

Okinawa

The Philippines

Guam

China

Gaza Strip

Washington DC

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 6:29 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

24.94%chance

443462

OptionVotes

YES

1550

726

Will China collapse before 2030

Dec 16, 3:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

201300

OptionVotes

YES

1474

907

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

997

957

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

YES

1104

925

China, Japan, South Korea enter free trade agreement

Apr 1, 2:51 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

9.88%chance

9252

OptionVotes

YES

302

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will South Korea become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:18 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

56.79%chance

9250

OptionVotes

YES

161

120

Will China escalate it’s claim to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea before the end of 2025?

Apr 11, 10:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.25%chance

8153

OptionVotes

YES

278

177

If/when a nation in each geopolitical sphere first/next becomes communist, will it be invaded within a year?

Jul 1, 7:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

353

OptionProbability

US allies with significant US troop presence (>10% of their own active military) and/or US-land-border e.g. Germany, Japan, Bahrain, Canada

US allies with moderate US troop presence (1-10% of their own active military) e.g. UK, Italy, Spain, South Korea, Australia

Russia-China allies within connected defence pacts e.g. Belarus, Kazakhstan, North Korea

Russia-China allies outside connected defence pacts e.g. Cuba, Syria, Iran

US allies with negligible US troop presence (<1% of their own active military) but within connected defence pacts e.g. France, Brazil

US allies with negligible US troop presence and outside connected defence pacts e.g. Switzerland, Ukraine, Taiwan

Nations outside both US and Russia-China geopolitical spheres e.g. India, South Africa, Indonesia

Russia

The US

Mainland China

Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?

Dec 16, 8:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.08%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

137

In year 2030, what will the general US population think of the effectiveness and necessity of the measures the government took against the COVID-19 in years 2020-2022?

Jun 20, 8:24 PMJan 31, 8:59 PM

525

OptionProbability

Other

Partisan split; Ds think measures were effective & necessary, Rs think it was a big government conspiracy. Overall 50% think policies went well, 30% too far, 10% not far enough.

mRNA vaccines turned out much more dangerous than expected

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtJJC0nWs9s South Korea, China, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. will be viewed as having WORSE responses than the U.S. India will be praised, though.

Measures were not strict enough, zero COVID was within reach

South China News

Prediction markets for South China

Prediction markets for South China

Prediction markets for South China

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, where it will be dropped first?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Will China collapse before 2030

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

China, Japan, South Korea enter free trade agreement

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will South Korea become militarily involved?

Will China escalate it’s claim to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea before the end of 2025?

If/when a nation in each geopolitical sphere first/next becomes communist, will it be invaded within a year?

Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?

In year 2030, what will the general US population think of the effectiveness and necessity of the measures the government took against the COVID-19 in years 2020-2022?

Latest stories