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Prediction markets for South Pacific

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

85.1%chance

81672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2390

418

Will the USA experience power outages due to solar flares in 2025?

Jun 1, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.48%chance

10216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

49

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2024 and/or 2025?

Jan 17, 9:12 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

658

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Italy

Germany

Spain

Poland

Netherlands

Norway

Greece

Denmark

Portugal

Turkey

Belgium

100

100

100

100

64

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

24

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