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Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Aug 18, 4:14 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

479261875

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Gretchen Whitmer

Ron DeSantis

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Tucker Carlson

Mark Kelly

Donald Trump

None

Elizabeth Warren

Nikki Haley

Ted Cruz

Michelle Obama

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Tulsi Gabbard

Jamie Dimon

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Walz

John Fetterman

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

Ro Khanna

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden

Tim Scott

Katie Hobbs

Greg Abbott

Mike Johnson

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Elise Stefanik

Kristi Noem

Nicole Shanahan

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

George Clooney

Tom Hanks

Steven Pinker

Patrick Stewart

George R R Martin

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Kanye West

Doug Burgum

Jeff Jackson

Glenn Youngkin

Barack Obama

Oprah Winfrey

Hillary Clinton

Joe Rogan

22

19

13

6

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

217108287

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

22

21

14

11

6

5

5

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

Dec 5, 4:35 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.18%chance

6784257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59346

3665

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

2.09%chance

2668577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

68438

1463

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

16.88%chance

8748408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13712

6179

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9945279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

800

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.81%chance

3515418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10448

9571

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

Apr 25, 11:16 AMDec 31, 11:47 AM

27.7%chance

9615260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9665

3727

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.3%chance

1614186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11095

8929

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

266885

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

59

40

1

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.52%chance

85947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13772

7261

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

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