OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Sudanese Civil War ends
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Any country leaves NATO
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China invades Taiwan
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
USA leaves NATO
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
89
86
82
77
77
75
71
68
67
63
62
59
59
59
57
56
55
54
54
53
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
49
47
47
47
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
44
43
42
42
42
41
41
40
38
37
37
37
36
36
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
31
30
29
29
28
27
26
26
25
24
23
23
22
19
19
18
18
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
9
9
8
8
6
6
4
1
OptionProbability
pass 500 or more executive orders
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Stays alive
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
A literal red line on the ground/floor
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
have a journalist arrested
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
put his name on a ship in the navy
Dep
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Pardon a convicted pedophile
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
new blockade of a country
call someone retarded through text or speech
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Revoke ten or more citizenships
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
ten or more protestors killed during term
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Announce he’s running for a third term
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
add a new federal holiday in his honor
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Call for the end of gay marriage
Pardon p diddy
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
expand the borders of the usa
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
resume buying oil from Russia
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
File lawsuit against a congressperson
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Withdraw from NATO
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Salute Putin
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
stops all sanctions on Russia
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
Replace his Vice President
take control of a part of greenland
add a new state
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
repeal Obamacare
make statements that are negative about labubu
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
ban trans people from holding federal offices
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
repeal an amendment
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
Call for the end of the Senate
force a former president to testify before Congress
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Implement a federal abortion ban
Raise the retirement age for social security
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
orders arrests of any Biden family member
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
all time high unemployment reached
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
stop California from hosting the Olympics
take control of a part of ukraine
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Implement a federal age of consent
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
Annex any part of Mexico
change the borders of a state
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fauci in jail at least one week
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
bans anime
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
95
89
87
86
86
85
81
80
79
76
73
70
68
65
65
59
55
52
52
50
50
47
45
44
44
43
42
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
37
37
37
37
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
33
31
31
31
31
31
30
29
28
27
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3064
326
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1747
572
OptionVotes
YES
NO
10480
9542
OptionProbability
Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")
Preventing S-Risks
Wild-animal welfare
Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC
Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)
Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts
Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation
Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness
Climate geoengineeering
Preventing stable totalitarianism
Space governance / space colonization
Georgism (aka land value taxes)
Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc
Cryonics & brain-emulation research
Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research
Charter cities / affinity cities / network states
Civilizational-preservation bunkers
Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc
38
34
31
26
24
21
20
19
18
14
12
10
9
9
9
8
7
6
OptionProbability
Missouri
Kansas
Other
70
28
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1023
923
OptionVotes
YES
NO
409
180
OptionProbability
China
Singapore
South Korea
Israel
USA
Other country, not in a semi-autonomous zone
Taiwan
Canada
Japan
Semi-autonomous charter city or network state (like Prospera)
United Kingdom
78
50
50
50
34
30
24
22
20
20
13
OptionProbability
Other
Roman Republic / Empire
Late renaissance Germany
Postclassic / Colonial period Mesoamerica (e.g. Mayan city states, Aztec Empire, Spanish Empire)
Qin Dynasty China
Late Horizon / Colonial period Andean America (e.g. Inca Empire, Spanish Empire)
Colonial period West Africa (e.g. Ashanti, Dahomey, Benin)
Golden Age India (e.g. Gupta Empire)
48
31
8
3
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
174
60