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Prediction markets for State Street

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.73%chance

9531769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4074

648

Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?

Mar 5, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.66%chance

249456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.05%chance

285260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2992

334

Which of these new vehicle types will Tesla produce by 2034?

Jan 6, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

603479

OptionProbability

A minibus

A bus

An airplane

A flying car

75

57

35

25

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.68%chance

492390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5270

1565

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

9.5%chance

181439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

32

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.28%chance

231399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1997

812

China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips

May 12, 2:38 AMAug 12, 2:35 AM

10%chance

18618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

486

209

First event in new White House ballroom?

Oct 26, 4:40 PMFeb 1, 5:35 PM

13601

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2029

Before July 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

65

49

41

28

6

1

Wall St: JPMC Banker prevails in "sex slave" lawsuit resulting in favorable economic outcome for plaintiff

May 6, 11:55 PMDec 7, 12:54 AM

15.71%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

43

Will any major US airlines allow one free checked bag domestically by 2030?

Apr 25, 1:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.26%chance

7129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

80

Will anyone be prosecuted for the murder of Alex Pretti by the end of 2027?

Feb 23, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

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