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Prediction markets for State Street

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

Which of these new vehicle types will Tesla produce by 2034?

Jan 6, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

603479

OptionProbability

A minibus

A bus

An airplane

A flying car

75

57

35

25

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.64%chance

482387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5267

1567

Will the United States government admit there are alien UFOs by July 4?

Dec 22, 11:27 PMJul 3, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

222189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

371

27

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.97%chance

231149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

843

Will the House vote on any resolution impeaching Pam Bondi?

Dec 23, 6:22 PMFeb 19, 10:59 AM

11980

OptionProbability

Before Feb 18,2026

Before Jan 10,2026

Before Jan 24,2026

14

0

0

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

10.9%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

35

First event in new White House ballroom?

Oct 26, 4:40 PMFeb 1, 5:35 PM

5347

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2029

Before July 2028

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

76

72

69

50

34

1

Will any country besides Brazil provide subsidized elective plastic surgery before 2033?

Oct 6, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.49%chance

9180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

99

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

Was the fire in the substation in SF on 12/20 caused by the real (currently unknown) problem?

Dec 22, 3:05 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

75.49%chance

586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

57

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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