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Prediction markets for States

Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Aug 18, 4:14 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

459215570

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

JB Pritzker

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

None

Ron DeSantis

Andy Beshear

Nikki Haley

Michelle Obama

Tulsi Gabbard

Jamie Dimon

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Walz

John Fetterman

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden

Tim Scott

Katie Hobbs

Greg Abbott

Elizabeth Warren

Mike Johnson

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Elise Stefanik

Kristi Noem

Nicole Shanahan

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

George Clooney

Tom Hanks

Steven Pinker

Patrick Stewart

George R R Martin

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Kanye West

Doug Burgum

Jeff Jackson

Mark Kelly

Glenn Youngkin

Barack Obama

Oprah Winfrey

Hillary Clinton

Joe Rogan

Ro Khanna

26

24

9

6

4

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.29%chance

27106385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138784

35201

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

8675030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75852

45834

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

15770618

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

31

24

7

6

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

83.49%chance

14844993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2115

209

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

916

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.18%chance

4131423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13710

7373

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

15.33%chance

2529465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23497

4256

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.6%chance

1313626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10535

9447

Will I get a job in the United States in 2025?

Jun 30, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

159426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11055

9045

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.71%chance

121255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10481

9520

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