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Prediction markets for Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]

Apr 22, 8:10 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

2.7%chance

227268780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5999

167

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]

Jun 15, 1:39 PMJul 14, 11:59 PM

20.74%chance

10941206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1955

512

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket]

May 28, 10:49 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

3210080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

695

More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jun 8, 12:18 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

59.44%chance

369669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

826

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

85.92%chance

415204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1910

754

Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

Mar 7, 4:27 PMDec 31, 4:21 PM

53.49%chance

424744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

932

Which countries will assist militarily in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing hostilities?

Mar 16, 6:26 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

354292

OptionProbability

United Arab Emirates

Uk

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Bahrain

United Kingdom

Oman

Iraq

Turkey

Singapore

India

Canada

Pakistan

Japan

Australia

Netherlands

France

Germany

South Korea

China

Italy

Spain

Greece

63

50

29

19

19

13

13

13

12

10

9

7

7

6

6

6

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

Mar 18, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.08%chance

223202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3164

316

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket]

May 29, 2:45 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

68.22%chance

222558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...

Apr 5, 8:43 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

201512

OptionProbability

5. December 31

4. September 30

3. July 31

6. Never in 2026

1. April 30

2. May 31

85

65

43

13

1

1

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket]

Jun 18, 1:30 PMAug 15, 5:59 AM

48.13%chance

131185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist?

Apr 4, 9:42 AMDec 31, 10:38 AM

12.52%chance

16453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

38

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