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Prediction markets for Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket]

Jun 18, 1:30 PMAug 15, 5:59 AM

1%chance

3614197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket]

May 29, 2:45 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

4.99%chance

459928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4364

229

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]

Jun 24, 4:08 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

3.11%chance

197747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5582

179

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?

Jun 30, 1:32 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

306057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3898

257

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]

Jun 29, 8:49 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

265536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

246

Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

Mar 7, 4:27 PMDec 31, 4:21 PM

48.42%chance

485238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

Which countries will assist militarily in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing hostilities?

Mar 16, 6:26 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

374344

OptionProbability

United Arab Emirates

Uk

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Bahrain

United Kingdom

Oman

Iraq

Turkey

Singapore

India

Canada

Pakistan

Australia

Japan

France

Germany

South Korea

China

Italy

Spain

Greece

Netherlands

63

50

29

19

19

13

13

13

12

10

9

7

7

6

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

Mar 18, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.36%chance

223207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3112

321

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...

Apr 5, 8:43 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

243161

OptionProbability

6. Never in 2026

5. December 31

1. April 30

2. May 31

3. July 31

4. September 30

99

3

1

1

1

1

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.

Jun 30, 4:51 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

48.62%chance

171955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

973

Will a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?

Mar 15, 11:09 PMJan 1, 12:08 AM

0.89%chance

101590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

9

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]

Aug 7, 5:00 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

49.48%chance

8342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

990

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