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Prediction markets for Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]

Apr 22, 8:10 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

2.75%chance

226268730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5949

168

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]

Jun 15, 1:39 PMJul 14, 11:59 PM

20.74%chance

10941206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1955

512

How many weeks will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?

May 7, 1:09 AMAug 1, 6:59 AM

5112824

OptionProbability

Above 10 weeks (May 9)

Above 12 weeks (May 23)

Above 15 weeks (Jun 13)

Above 20 weeks (Jul 18)

Above 28 weeks (Sep 12)

Above 40 weeks (Dec 5)

Above 58 weeks (Apr 10, 2027)

Above 85 weeks (Oct 16, 2027)

100

100

100

53

13

10

6

3

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket]

May 28, 10:49 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

3210080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

695

More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jun 8, 12:18 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

59.44%chance

369669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

826

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

85.92%chance

415204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1910

754

Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

Mar 7, 4:27 PMDec 31, 4:21 PM

53.49%chance

424744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

932

On June 28th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?

May 27, 1:29 PMJun 28, 11:59 PM

183729

OptionProbability

x ≥ 2

x ≥ 4

x ≥ 6

x ≥ 8

x ≥ 10

x ≥ 12

x ≥ 14

97

96

94

89

86

75

64

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

Mar 18, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.08%chance

223202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3164

316

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket]

May 29, 2:45 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

68.22%chance

222558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket]

Jun 18, 1:30 PMAug 15, 5:59 AM

48.13%chance

131185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026?

Mar 17, 6:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

13257

OptionProbability

No clear controller

Other

Iran

US

51

23

17

8

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